Racing Santander vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-1 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Racing Santander, 26% draw, 38% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Espanyol at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Espanyol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 18M. PratiM
- 23Iván MartínM
- 11Andrés MartínM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 12Asier VillalibreF
- 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
- 8André AlmeidaM
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 19Iker LuqueF
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 15Pablo GarcíaF
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 15Bryan ZaragozaM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 22Álex CalatravaF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 24T. DolanF
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 2GorosabelD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 11Pere MillaM
- 14Unai NúñezD
Form going into Racing Santander vs Espanyol
Racing Santander
La Liga
- L0-2away to Osasuna18 October 2026
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
Espanyol
La Liga
- L0-1Atletico Madrid17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Racing Santander
Espanyol and Racing Santander have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Racing Santander won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Racing Santander | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
La LigaRacing Santander 2–1 Espanyol - 10 Feb 2024
Segunda DivisiónRacing Santander 2–0 Espanyol - 19 Aug 2023
Segunda DivisiónEspanyol 2–0 Racing Santander - 19 Mar 2012
La LigaEspanyol 3–1 Racing Santander - 22 Oct 2011
La LigaRacing Santander 0–1 Espanyol - 3 Apr 2011
La LigaEspanyol 1–2 Racing Santander - 14 Nov 2010
La LigaRacing Santander 0–0 Espanyol
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Racing Santander's attack rates 27% above Espanyol's, and Espanyol concede 41% fewer than Racing Santander. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Racing Santander | 0.99 | 1.53 |
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Espanyol
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Santander beat Espanyol 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Espanyol at 38% and given a win for Racing Santander 36%. The goals: Eduardo Expósito Jaén 62' for Espanyol, Jeanuël Belocian 69' for Racing Santander, Yassir Zabiri 84' for Racing Santander. On expected goals it finished 2.50–0.62.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Racing Santander a 60.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 53.5% after a win, 61.6% after a draw, 65.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.5%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.
For Espanyol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.9% going in: 16.8% after a win, 22.9% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.1%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Racing Santander v Espanyol has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 39% / 25% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is Racing Santander's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Racing Santander win36%▼ −3
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Espanyol win38%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.