Aston Villa vs Fulham Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Aston Villa, 26% draw, 23% Fulham — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Fulham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 47Alysson EdwardM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 35João GomesM
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 39Brian MadjoF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 40M. BizotG
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 5T. MingsD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 1B. LenoG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 3C. BasseyD
- 33A. RobinsonD
- 16S. BergeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 24Joshua KingM
- 17A. IwobiM
- 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 2K. TeteD
- 5J. AndersenD
- 10T. CairneyM
- 20Manuel ÁngelM
- 15H. LarssonM
- 8César PalaciosM
- 11KevinF
- 23B. LecomteG
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Fulham
Aston Villa
Premier League
- W2-1Manchester City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
Fulham
Premier League
- W1-0away to Coventry24 October 2026
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Aston Villa and Fulham have met 7 times in the records we hold, Aston Villa has won 5 of them to Fulham's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Aston Villa on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 |
| Fulham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueAston Villa 1–1 Fulham - 25 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueFulham 1–0 Aston Villa - 28 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueAston Villa 3–1 Fulham - 3 May 2025
Premier LeagueAston Villa 1–0 Fulham - 19 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 1–3 Aston Villa - 17 Feb 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 1–2 Aston Villa - 12 Nov 2023
Premier LeagueAston Villa 3–1 Fulham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Aston Villa's attack rates 66% above Fulham's, and Fulham concede 12% fewer than Aston Villa. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Fulham | 0.82 | 0.85 |
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Fulham
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Fulham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aston Villa and Fulham drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aston Villa at 51% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolas Jackson 39' for Aston Villa, Zion Suzuki (own goal) 64' for Fulham. On expected goals it finished 1.87–2.26.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aston Villa a 23.3% chance to finish in the top four: 26.2% after a win, 20.1% after a draw, 16.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.1%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
For Fulham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.2% going in: 14.4% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.9%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.