31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Partick vs Morton Championship prediction & result

Firhill Stadium, Glasgow
Referee: C. Steven
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Partick 2-3 Morton.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Partick, 18% draw, 11% Morton — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Partick at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Partick0%Draw8%Morton92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽M. Garrity
9'
I. Wilson
⚽L. Ashcroftassist: B. Stanway
14'
⚽T. Wattassist: P. Reading
35'
55'
🔁K. Robertsonout: H. Cochrane
59'
⚽C. Sandilandsassist: D. Borso
🔁E. Hendersonout: A. Fitzpatrick
60'
68'
⚽C. Sandilandsassist: D. Borso
🔁B. Stanwayout: A. Samuel
72'
🔁B. Dempseyout: E. Ingram
75'
🔁B. McPhersonout: R. Crawford
75'
E. Ingram
76'
77'
H. Cochrane
S. Drozd
82'
T. Watt
89'

Line-ups

Partick
  • 12L. McFarlane
  • 24B. McPherson
  • 5L. Ashcroft
  • 20D. O'Reilly
  • 3P. Reading
  • 8O. Smyth
  • 6B. Dempsey
  • 7S. Drozd
  • 26B. Stanway
  • 10E. Henderson
  • 32T. Watt
Substitutes
  • 1L. Budinauckas
  • 2C. Logan
  • 9A. Samuel
  • 11G. Mackay-Steven
  • 14R. Crawford
  • 17E. Ingram
  • 21A. Fitzpatrick
  • 31J. Low
  • 64T. Letsosa
Morton
  • 1E. Harrison
  • 2C. Ballantyne
  • 5P. Croker
  • 3J. Longridge
  • 6C. Okike
  • 21G. Gillespie
  • 27I. Wilson
  • 20C. Sandilands
  • 19K. Robertson
  • 7M. Garrity
  • 12D. Borso
Substitutes
  • 31B. Kinnear
  • 4C. Cupps
  • 9J. Gorman
  • 17S. Bashir
  • 25M. Carse
  • 28L. Murphy
  • 35D. Black
  • 47H. Cochrane
Coach: Gary Miller

Form going into Partick vs Morton

Partick

Championship

  • W3-0Stenhousemuir24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Dunfermline20 October 2026

Morton

Championship

  • W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Partick15942219+1231
9Morton144191625-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Partick vs Morton

  • 1 August 2026Morton 0–1 PartickChampionship
  • 13 March 2026Morton 1–2 PartickChampionship
  • 3 January 2026Partick 3–2 MortonChampionship
  • 11 October 2025Morton 1–1 PartickChampionship
  • 9 August 2025Partick 1–1 MortonChampionship
  • 29 March 2025Morton 0–1 PartickChampionship

The result against the call

Morton won 3–2 at Partick. The model had leaned towards a win for Partick at 71% and given a win for Morton 11%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 9 matches like this one. The goals: M. Garrity 3' for Morton, L. Ashcroft 14' for Partick, T. Watt 35' for Partick, C. Sandilands 59' for Morton, C. Sandilands 68' for Morton.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Partick a 61.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 63.3% after a win, 56.5% after a draw, 51.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.8%, 9.9 points lower than before the match.

For Morton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 69.4% going in: 60.1% after a win, 66.0% after a draw, 70.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.1%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Partick v Morton has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 73% / 17% / 10% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 71% / 18% / 11%: the biggest move is Partick's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Partick win71%▼ −2
  2. Draw18%▲ +1
  3. Morton win11%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.