31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Dunfermline vs Inverness CT Championship prediction & result

East End Park, Dunfermline
Referee: J. Wilkie
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Dunfermline 5-1 Inverness CT.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Dunfermline, 29% draw, 29% Inverness CT — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunfermline at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunfermline99%Draw1%Inverness CT0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Donnelly
11'
11'
⚽A. Bavidge (pen)
40'
P. Allan
N. Abdulai
44'
🔁A. Donnellyout: J. Tod
46'
🔁R. MacLeodout: O. Shaw
46'
⚽O. Adamsassist: A. Oyirwoth
47'
⚽O. Shawassist: A. Tod
54'
⚽O. Shawassist: O. Adams
63'
65'
A. Stewart
⚽N. Abdulaiassist: A. Tod
68'
69'
🔁K. Smithout: D. Devine
69'
🔁L. Soleout: A. Mackinnon
69'
🔁R. MacGregorout: R. Duncan
72'
🔁L. Stewartout: D. E. Osong
🔁A. Todout: Z. Rudden
75'
🔁K. Brayout: K. Corbally
75'
⚽K. Corbally
79'
🔁A. Amadeout: C. Gilmour
81'
81'
🔁A. Bavidgeout: D. Wotherspoon
90+1'
R. Duncan

Line-ups

Dunfermline
  • 1A. Oxborough
  • 24D. Lobban
  • 25A. Donnelly
  • 6N. Abdulai
  • 47R. Fraser
  • 19A. Oyirwoth
  • 14A. Amade
  • 22K. Bray
  • 16R. MacLeod
  • 99O. Adams
  • 26A. Tod
Substitutes
  • 12M. Dibaga
  • 3J. Tod
  • 8C. Gilmour
  • 9Z. Rudden
  • 10O. Shaw
  • 11S. Kearney
  • 17O. Thomas
  • 18K. Corbally
  • 20C. Kane
Coach: Neil Lennon
Inverness CT
  • 1R. Munro
  • 2C. MacLeod
  • 15K. Smith
  • 5R. Savage
  • 4G. Shinnie
  • 7P. Allan
  • 26R. MacGregor
  • 17L. Sole
  • 35A. Stewart
  • 9L. Stewart
  • 36A. Bavidge
Substitutes
  • 21L. Ross
  • 3N. Boutin
  • 6D. Devine
  • 8A. Mackinnon
  • 10D. Wotherspoon
  • 12D. MacKay
  • 16R. Duncan
  • 19M. Bates
  • 20D. E. Osong
Coach: Scott Kellacher

Form going into Dunfermline vs Inverness CT

Dunfermline

Championship

  • W1-0away to Stenhousemuir27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Queen's Park24 October 2026
  • D1-1Partick20 October 2026

Inverness CT

Championship

  • W2-0away to Raith Rovers24 October 2026
  • W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dunfermline14671157+825
6Inverness CT155552020020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Inverness CT

  • 1 August 2026Inverness CT 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 27 April 2024Dunfermline 1–1 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 27 February 2024Inverness CT 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 18 November 2023Dunfermline 1–1 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 2 September 2023Inverness CT 1–1 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 26 March 2022Inverness CT 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship

The result against the call

Dunfermline beat Inverness CT 5–1. The model had made a win for Dunfermline its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Bavidge (penalty) 11' for Inverness CT, O. Adams 47' for Dunfermline, O. Shaw 54' for Dunfermline, O. Shaw 63' for Dunfermline, N. Abdulai 68' for Dunfermline, K. Corbally 79' for Dunfermline.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunfermline a 60.0% chance to finish in the top four: 66.4% after a win, 58.8% after a draw, 51.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.4%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.

For Inverness CT the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 64.4% going in: 72.7% after a win, 64.5% after a draw, 58.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.8%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dunfermline v Inverness CT has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Dunfermline's chance of winning, down 13 points.

  1. Dunfermline win42%▼ −13
  2. Draw29%▲ +4
  3. Inverness CT win29%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.