Cruz Azul vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Cruz Azul, 22% draw, 19% Leon — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Cruz Azul at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Leon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23K. MierG
- 55R. GonzalezD
- 17A. GarcíaD
- 33G. PioviD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 6É. LiraM
- 10A. MontañoM
- 19C. RodríguezM
- 21G. FernándezF
- 11C. EbereF
- 1A. GudiñoG
- 7N. IbáñezF
- 12A. MontesD
- 2A. MozoD
- 16J. MárquezM
- 20J. ParadelaF
- 22J. RodarteD
- 18L. RomeroF
- 23Ó. GarcíaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomañaD
- 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
- 185C. MoraD
- 20R. EcheverríaM
- 29J. RodríguezM
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 18E. GuerraF
- 19J. AlvaradoF
- 11I. DíazF
- 5S. VegasD
- 181Irving MartínezG
- 203J. LaraM
- 247I. EspinosaM
- 8J. DomínguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 4B. ColulaD
- 27D. CambindoF
- 6F. BeltránM
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Leon
Cruz Azul
Liga MX
- W3-1away to Club Queretaro26 October 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca22 October 2026
- W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026
Leon
Liga MX
- D1-1Toluca24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Tigres UANL21 October 2026
- L3-5Club America18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Leon
Cruz Azul and Leon have met 7 times in the records we hold, Cruz Azul has won 6 of them to Leon's 1.
The record
Cruz Azul won the last one 2–1 on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 |
| Leon | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 16 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 3.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
Liga MXCruz Azul 2–1 Leon - 11 Jan 2026
Liga MXLeon 2–1 Cruz Azul - 27 Jul 2025
Liga MXCruz Azul 4–1 Leon - 12 May 2025
Liga MXCruz Azul 2–1 Leon - 9 May 2025
Liga MXLeon 2–3 Cruz Azul - 16 Apr 2025
Liga MXCruz Azul 2–1 Leon - 15 Sep 2024
Liga MXLeon 1–2 Cruz Azul
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cruz Azul's attack rates 44% above Leon's, and Cruz Azul concede 7% fewer than Leon. That gives Cruz Azul the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Leon
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul beat Leon 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Cruz Azul at 59%. The goals: Andrés Montaño (penalty) 56' for Cruz Azul, José Paradela 72' for Cruz Azul, Jose Alvarado (penalty) 90+10' for Leon. On expected goals it finished 1.56–2.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cruz Azul a 17.1% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 22.8% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.8%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.
For Leon the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 49.5% going in: 83.4% after a win, 57.5% after a draw, 37.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.8%, 11.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cruz Azul v Leon has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 62% / 20% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is Cruz Azul's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Cruz Azul win59%▼ −3
- Draw22%▲ +2
- Leon win19%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.