Athletic Club vs Getafe La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 4-0 Getafe.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Athletic Club, 34% draw, 23% Getafe — fair odds of 2.33, 2.94 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Getafe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 3Dani VivianD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 9I. WilliamsM
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 21Maroan SannadiF
- 22Nico SerranoF
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 5YerayD
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 13David SoriaG
- 17Kiko FemeníaD
- 14Daniel CarvajalD
- 8N. GudeljD
- 26J. ValouD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 11Ramón TerratsM
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 20Iván AzónF
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 4S. SazonovD
- 28Alberto RiscoM
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 3DavinchiD
- 5A. AbqarD
Form going into Athletic Club vs Getafe
Athletic Club
La Liga
- L1-3away to Levante21 October 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
Getafe
La Liga
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Getafe
Athletic Club and Getafe have met 7 times in the records we hold, Athletic Club has won 3 of them to Getafe's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Athletic Club won the last one 4–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 |
| Getafe | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
La LigaAthletic Club 4–0 Getafe - 5 Apr 2026
La LigaGetafe 2–0 Athletic Club - 25 Oct 2025
La LigaAthletic Club 0–1 Getafe - 15 May 2025
La LigaGetafe 0–2 Athletic Club - 15 Aug 2024
La LigaAthletic Club 1–1 Getafe - 3 May 2024
La LigaGetafe 0–2 Athletic Club - 27 Sep 2023
La LigaAthletic Club 2–2 Getafe
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Athletic Club's attack rates 61% above Getafe's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Getafe | 0.61 | 0.89 |
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Getafe
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club beat Getafe 4–0. The model had made a win for Athletic Club its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alex Berenguer 17' for Athletic Club, Iñaki Williams 35' for Athletic Club, Aitor Paredes 70' for Athletic Club, Yuri Berchiche 88' for Athletic Club. Sent off: Mario Martín Rielves (Getafe) 86'. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Athletic Club a 8.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.2% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
For Getafe the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.5% going in: 17.2% after a win, 23.6% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Athletic Club v Getafe has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 45% / 33% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 34% / 23%: the biggest move is Athletic Club's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Athletic Club win43%▼ −2
- Draw34%▲ +1
- Getafe win23%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.