Sevilla vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Sevilla, 25% draw, 24% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Sevilla at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sevilla vs Osasuna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 21C. EjukeM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 16IsaacF
- 19L. StassinF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 15Fábio CardosoD
- 12A. SanganteD
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 19V. RosierD
- 24CatenaD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 7MoncayolaM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 14Rubén GarcíaF
- 17A. BudimirF
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 35U. SantosD
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 48R. YeboahD
- 15Diego RicoD
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 18Raul MoroF
Form going into Sevilla vs Osasuna
Sevilla
La Liga
- L1-4away to Real Madrid18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026
Osasuna
La Liga
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Sevilla
Osasuna and Sevilla have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
Sevilla won the last one 2–0 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Sevilla | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
La LigaSevilla 2–0 Osasuna - 26 Apr 2026
La LigaOsasuna 2–1 Sevilla - 8 Nov 2025
La LigaSevilla 1–0 Osasuna - 24 Apr 2025
La LigaOsasuna 1–0 Sevilla - 2 Dec 2024
La LigaSevilla 1–1 Osasuna - 28 Jan 2024
La LigaSevilla 1–1 Osasuna - 23 Sep 2023
La LigaOsasuna 0–0 Sevilla
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Sevilla's attack rates 16% above Osasuna's, and Sevilla concede 10% fewer than Osasuna. That gives Sevilla the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Osasuna
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sevilla beat Osasuna 2–0. The model had made a win for Sevilla its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Isaac Romero 24' for Sevilla, Felix Correia 82' for Sevilla. On expected goals it finished 1.18–0.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Osasuna a 24.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.5% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.1%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.