25 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result

Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona
Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Barcelona, 25% draw, 27% Real Madrid — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Barcelona at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Barcelona0%Draw6%Real Madrid94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Xavi Espartout: Alejandro Balde
30'
41'
⚽Kylian Mbappé
46'
Aurelien Tchouameni
⚽Raphael Dias Belloliassist: Pedri
61'
62'
🔁Federico Valverdeout: Denzel Dumfries
🔁Fermín Lópezout: Frenkie de Jong
74'
80'
🔁Bernardo Silvaout: Eduardo Camavinga
Anthony Gordon
84'
🔁Anthony Gordonout: Karim Adeyemi
85'
🔁Raphael Dias Belloliout: Gabriel Jesus
86'
87'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Eduardo Camavinga
90+2'
Dean Huijsen
90+4'
Kylian Mbappé
90+4'
🔁Arda Gülerout: Trent Alexander-Arnold
90+4'
🔁Yan Diomandeout: Carlos Espí
Karim Adeyemi
90+6'
Alejandro Balde
90+6'

Match stats — Barcelona vs Real Madrid

62%Possession38%
18Shots10
6On target5
6Corners6
1.27xG2

Goals against chances

Barcelona1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Real Madrid2 from 2.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barcelona 4-3-3
  • 1Joan GarcíaG
  • 12X. EspartD
  • 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
  • 18Gerard MartínD
  • 2João CanceloD
  • 7FermínM
  • 16RodriM
  • 8PedriM
  • 10Lamine YamalF
  • 11RaphinhaF
  • 17A. GordonF
Substitutes
  • 14K. AdeyemiF
  • 13W. SzczęsnyG
  • 25D. LivakovićG
  • 32O. GorenM
  • 6GaviM
  • 9Gabriel JesusF
  • 4B. FarinasM
  • 29H. AbdelkarimF
  • 3Alejandro BaldeD
Coach: H. Flick
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 8F. ValverdeD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 14A. TchouaméniM
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 25Y. DiomandeM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 39I. VoloshynG
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 22A. RüdigerD
  • 27Thiago PitarchM
  • 26Sergio MestreG
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 9EndrickF
  • 3Éder MilitãoD
Coach: José Mourinho

Form going into Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Barcelona

La Liga

  • W5-2away to Real Betis17 October 2026
  • W3-0Getafe10 October 2026

Real Madrid

La Liga

  • W4-1Sevilla18 October 2026
  • W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Barcelona1211014813+3533
2Real Madrid1210023110+2130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Barcelona and Real Madrid have met 7 times in the records we hold, Barcelona has won 5 of them to Real Madrid's 2.

The record

Real Madrid won the last one 2–1 on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Barcelona5021913
Real Madrid2051319

Between them these 7 meetings produced 32 goals, an average of 4.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    La Liga    Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid
  • 10 May 2026
    La Liga    Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid
  • 11 Jan 2026
    Super Cup    Barcelona 3–2 Real Madrid
  • 26 Oct 2025
    La Liga    Real Madrid 2–1 Barcelona
  • 11 May 2025
    La Liga    Barcelona 4–3 Real Madrid
  • 26 Apr 2025
    Copa del Rey    Barcelona 3–2 Real Madrid
  • 12 Jan 2025
    Super Cup    Real Madrid 2–5 Barcelona

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Barcelona's attack rates 7% above Real Madrid's, and Real Madrid concede 18% fewer than Barcelona. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Barcelona1.780.73
Real Madrid1.670.60

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Barcelona and Real Madrid

Barcelona

GoalsAssists

  • Raphinha153
  • Lamine Yamal108
  • Fermín75

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé132
  • J. Bellingham43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid won 2–1 at Barcelona. The model had leaned towards a win for Barcelona at 48% and given a win for Real Madrid 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kylian Mbappé 41' for Real Madrid, Raphael Dias Belloli 61' for Barcelona, Kylian Mbappé 87' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 1.27–2.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Barcelona a 71.6% chance to win the league: 77.6% after a win, 70.5% after a draw, 62.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.9%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

For Real Madrid the question was the chance to win the league, 19.1% going in: 27.2% after a win, 18.9% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.2%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.