Castellón vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Castellón 4-0 Sporting Gijon.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Castellón, 27% draw, 21% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13R. MatthysG
- 22J. MellotD
- 5Alberto JiménezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 14Iñigo CórdobaD
- 18Pablo SantiagoM
- 6M. OrozcoM
- 8BarriM
- 21Álvaro MartínM
- 10Israel SueroF
- 16A. JakobsenF
- 19Hamza BellariF
- 12Lucas AlcázarD
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 27A. GalaM
- 23Varo GarcíaF
- 15I. KostisD
- 24D. Muale NzanzaF
- 26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira RêgoF
- 1A. SaipiG
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 2Guille RosasD
- 4E. GularteD
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 7Gaspar CamposM
- 22Hugo GuillamónM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 3Pablo GarcíaM
- 10César GelabertF
- 19J. OteroF
- 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
- 15Pablo VázquezD
- 16A. SarcoF
- 5Diego SánchezD
- 27Enol PrendesF
- 6Nacho MartínM
- 26Iker MartínezD
- 21M. LoumM
- 35C. FerreresM
Form going into Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
Castellón
Segunda División
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 30 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
- 15 March 2026Sporting Gijon 4–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 5 October 2025Castellón 3–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 5 May 2025Castellón 4–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 14 October 2024Sporting Gijon 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 24 January 2021Castellón 2–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 November 2020Sporting Gijon 1–0 CastellónSegunda División
Leading scorers: Castellón and Sporting Gijon
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- A. Jakobsen41
- Ousmane Camara41
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón beat Sporting Gijon 4–0. The model had made a win for Castellón its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Adam Jakobsen 3' for Castellón, Israel Suero Fernández 26' for Castellón, Adam Jakobsen 52' for Castellón, Álvaro García Arana 87' for Castellón. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Castellón a 51.0% chance to finish in the top two: 54.5% after a win, 48.2% after a draw, 43.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.5%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
For Sporting Gijon the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 6.0% going in: 8.9% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.7%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.