Real Sociedad vs Levante La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 2-1 Levante.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Real Sociedad, 22% draw, 24% Levante — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Levante
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 22Héctor FortD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 24L. SučićM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 14T. KuboF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 15Pablo MarínM
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 13M. RyanG
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 2A. MandiD
- 3Ifeanyi NdukweD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 7BruguiM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 6RequeM
- 24T. FernándezM
- 9Iván RomeroF
- 10P. RatkovF
- 27Paco CortésF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 21Etta EyongF
- 17Víctor GarcíaD
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 32PrimoG
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 33M. SantosD
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Levante
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- W5-2away to Malaga18 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
Levante
La Liga
- W3-1Athletic Club21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levante vs Real Sociedad
Levante and Real Sociedad have met 7 times in the records we hold, Real Sociedad has won 4 of them to Levante's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Real Sociedad won the last one 2–1 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
La LigaReal Sociedad 2–1 Levante - 4 Apr 2026
La LigaReal Sociedad 2–0 Levante - 20 Dec 2025
La LigaLevante 1–1 Real Sociedad - 6 May 2022
La LigaLevante 2–1 Real Sociedad - 28 Aug 2021
La LigaReal Sociedad 1–0 Levante - 7 Mar 2021
La LigaReal Sociedad 1–0 Levante - 19 Dec 2020
La LigaLevante 2–1 Real Sociedad
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Real Sociedad's attack rates 35% above Levante's, and Levante concede 3% fewer than Real Sociedad. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | 0.98 | 1.09 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.32 | 1.12 |
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Levante
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad beat Levante 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Real Sociedad at 54%. The goals: Orri Steinn Óskarsson 6' for Real Sociedad, Nacho Pérez Gómez 22' for Levante, Benat Turrientes 27' for Real Sociedad. On expected goals it finished 2.54–0.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad a 20.8% chance to finish in the top four: 23.5% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.5%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For Levante the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.7% going in: 5.2% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Sociedad v Levante has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 52% / 24% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 54% / 22% / 24%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Real Sociedad win54%▲ +2
- Draw22%▼ −2
- Levante win24%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.