25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sabadell vs Tenerife Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell
Referee: Saul Ais Reig
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sabadell 1-1 Tenerife.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sabadell, 30% draw, 24% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sabadell at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sabadell4%Draw94%Tenerife2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Neal Viereck
Arthur Bonaldo
8'
Edgar Gonzalez
17'
🔁Arthur Bonaldoout: José Luis Català
27'
45+1'
Juanjo Sánchez
🔁Edgar Gonzalezout: Eneko Aguilar
45'
⚽Óscar Sanzassist: Ton Ripoll
47'
Albert Orriols Cerarols
49'
55'
⚽Enric Gallegoassist: Nacho Gil
José Luis Català
59'
60'
🔁Juanjo Sánchezout: Jesus Alvarez
Eneko Aguilar
61'
🔁Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquezout: Yanis Rahmani
65'
🔁Javi López-Pintoout: Nikolay Obolskiy
65'
69'
🔁Noel Lópezout: Martin Pečar
🔁Quadri Liameedout: Pere Pons
75'
77'
Anthony Landazuri
82'
🔁A. Krdžalićout: Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa
82'
🔁Enric Gallegoout: Jesús De Miguel Alameda
82'
🔁Christian Pierre Louis Gomisout: Dani Fernández

Match stats — Sabadell vs Tenerife

56%Possession44%
14Shots11
4On target3
4Corners5
0.9xG0.7

Goals against chances

Sabadell1 from 0.90 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tenerife1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sabadell 3-4-3
  • 1Diego FuoliG
  • 14Óscar SanzD
  • 6Edgar GonzálezD
  • 5Arthur BonaldoD
  • 7Ton RipollM
  • 22Q. LiameedM
  • 20UrriM
  • 11Javi LópezM
  • 23J. PriegoF
  • 12Gastón VallesF
  • 10Ángel BaenaF
Substitutes
  • 25Marc VidalG
  • 18Y. OwusuM
  • 15Kaiser LázaroD
  • 27José Luis CatalàD
  • 24Eneko AguilarM
  • 9N. ObolskiyF
  • 13J. OrtegaG
  • 8Pere PonsM
  • 19Y. RahmaniF
Coach: Ferran Costa
Tenerife 4-4-2
  • 1Dani MartínG
  • 2David RodríguezD
  • 12A. LandázuriD
  • 27N. ViereckD
  • 3R. JureškinD
  • 17C. GomisM
  • 23A. KrdžalićM
  • 6JuanjoM
  • 11Noel LópezM
  • 18Enric GallegoF
  • 10Nacho GilF
Substitutes
  • 29Daniel FernándezM
  • 4José LeónD
  • 40Gabriel LozanoG
  • 21Marc MateuD
  • 5Jorge MorenoD
  • 7M. PečarM
  • 20M. PittónM
  • 22G. RanosF
  • 9De MiguelF
Coach: Álvaro

Form going into Sabadell vs Tenerife

Sabadell

Segunda División

  • L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026

Tenerife

Segunda División

  • D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
  • D1-1Girona12 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sabadell134631211+118
14Tenerife123631517-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sabadell vs Tenerife

  • 16 May 2021Sabadell 0–2 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 3 December 2020Tenerife 1–2 SabadellSegunda División

Leading scorers: Sabadell and Tenerife

Sabadell

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sabadell and Tenerife drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabadell at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Óscar Sanz 47' for Sabadell, Enric Gallego 55' for Tenerife. On expected goals it finished 0.90–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tenerife a 10.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.2% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.8%, 1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sabadell v Tenerife has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 50% / 28% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Sabadell's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Sabadell win46%▼ −4
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Tenerife win24%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.