Toluca vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 2-2 Club Tijuana.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Toluca, 25% draw, 22% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Toluca at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs Club Tijuana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. LópezD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 8N. CastroM
- 11HelinhoM
- 10J. AnguloM
- 9A. VegaM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 24F. ArceM
- 29J. DíazM
- 13LuanD
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 1H. GonzálezG
- 35É. GutiérrezM
- 4B. MéndezD
- 15P. PérezM
- 19S. SimónM
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 3R. FernándezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 33P. OrtízD
- 20Á. ZapataM
- 17R. ÁrcigaM
- 34F. BoyaM
- 31Y. PadillaM
- 202J. GonzálezM
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 19D. AbreuF
- 9MouradF
- 11F. GonzálezF
- 6A. GómezD
- 29S. HernándezG
- 18A. MejíaD
- 192I. OlveraD
- 7Adonis PreciadoF
- 15I. RiveroM
Form going into Toluca vs Club Tijuana
Toluca
Liga MX
- D1-1Atletico San Luis18 October 2026
Club Tijuana
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Puebla17 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Juarez10 October 2026
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Tijuana did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Toluca
Club Tijuana and Toluca have met 7 times in the records we hold, Toluca has won 4 of them to Club Tijuana's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Toluca on 22 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Oct 2026
Liga MXToluca 2–2 Club Tijuana - 14 Feb 2026
Liga MXToluca 1–0 Club Tijuana - 23 Oct 2025
Liga MXClub Tijuana 0–0 Toluca - 11 Jan 2025
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–4 Toluca - 14 Sep 2024
Liga MXToluca 4–0 Club Tijuana - 25 Feb 2024
Liga MXToluca 2–0 Club Tijuana - 16 Sep 2023
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–1 Toluca
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Toluca's attack rates 26% above Club Tijuana's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| Toluca | 0.97 | 1.16 |
Leading scorers: Toluca and Club Tijuana
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Club Tijuana
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca and Club Tijuana drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 53% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Elias Manoel 38' for Club Tijuana, Federico Viñas 61' for Toluca, Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro 65' for Toluca, Yael Padilla 75' for Club Tijuana. On expected goals it finished 2.24–1.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toluca a 91.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 97.3% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 77.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 88.3%, 3 points lower than before the match.
For Club Tijuana the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 36.0% going in: 59.6% after a win, 38.2% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.2%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Toluca v Club Tijuana has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Toluca's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Toluca win53%▼ −2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Club Tijuana win22%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.