Puebla vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-4 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Puebla, 29% draw, 35% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Puebla at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 16A. RamírezM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 25H. JuradoM
- 29E. MustreF
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 6J. DíazD
- 9L. HernándezF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 8O. MorenoF
- 20J. PachucaD
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 4V. GuzmánD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 9D. RossiM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 30J. RodríguezM
- 21L. ReyesD
- 10L. OrellanoF
- 33S. MedinaD
- 11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
- 22L. CárdenasG
- 17J. CoronaM
- 5F. AmbrízM
Form going into Puebla vs Monterrey
Puebla
Liga MX
- D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- W2-1CF Pachuca19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club America11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
What these results say
- Monterrey scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Puebla
Monterrey and Puebla have met 7 times in the records we hold, Monterrey has won 5 of them to Puebla's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Monterrey won the last one 4–1 on 22 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 |
| Puebla | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Oct 2026
Liga MXPuebla 1–4 Monterrey - 22 Apr 2026
Liga MXMonterrey 2–1 Puebla - 30 Aug 2025
Liga MXPuebla 2–4 Monterrey - 13 Jan 2025
Liga MXMonterrey 1–1 Puebla - 17 Aug 2024
Liga MXPuebla 1–2 Monterrey - 14 Jan 2024
Liga MXMonterrey 2–0 Puebla - 4 Oct 2023
Liga MXPuebla 1–1 Monterrey
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Monterrey's attack rates 33% above Puebla's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Puebla and Monterrey
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monterrey won 4–1 at Puebla. The model had leaned towards a win for Puebla at 36% and given a win for Monterrey 35%. The goals: Diego Rossi 17' for Monterrey, Hugo Cuypers 31' for Monterrey, Lucas Ocampos 34' for Monterrey, Roberto de la Rosa 61' for Monterrey, Facundo Almada 66' for Puebla. On expected goals it finished 1.19–1.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puebla a 18.6% chance to finish in the top eight: 32.4% after a win, 13.5% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 11.8 points lower than before the match.
For Monterrey the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 46.6% going in: 63.5% after a win, 44.1% after a draw, 30.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.5%, 16.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Puebla v Monterrey has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Puebla's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Puebla win36%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Monterrey win35%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.