CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: CF Pachuca 1-2 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 33% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
CF Pachuca at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. MorenoG
- 13J. BerlangaD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 32P. BudibD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 16C. RiveraM
- 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
- 21N. VallejoM
- 7R. PizarroM
- 11O. IdrissiM
- 23S. RondónF
- 187G. ÃlvarezF
- 31J. EulogioG
- 211C. HernandezF
- 6M. IsaísD
- 29KenedyM
- 30S. RodríguezM
- 12S. SantosM
- 186Ángel López BustamanteM
- 221Ulises Natanael Martínez ReynosoD
- 1A. GudiñoG
- 17A. GarcíaD
- 12A. MontesD
- 33G. PioviD
- 2A. MozoM
- 6É. LiraM
- 16J. MárquezM
- 3O. CamposM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 19C. RodríguezM
- 21G. FernándezF
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 18L. RomeroF
- 14J. CaleroF
- 7N. IbáñezF
- 10A. MontañoM
- 23K. MierG
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 11C. EbereF
- 60Ariel Castro SevillaM
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
CF Pachuca
Liga MX
- L1-2away to Monterrey19 October 2026
Cruz Azul
Liga MX
- W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul have met 7 times in the records we hold, Cruz Azul has won 4 of them to CF Pachuca's 3.
The record
Cruz Azul won the last one 2–1 on 22 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 |
| Cruz Azul | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Oct 2026
Liga MXCF Pachuca 1–2 Cruz Azul - 5 Apr 2026
Liga MXCruz Azul 1–2 CF Pachuca - 13 Sep 2025
Liga MXCF Pachuca 0–1 Cruz Azul - 9 Feb 2025
Liga MXCruz Azul 2–1 CF Pachuca - 29 Sep 2024
Liga MXCF Pachuca 2–4 Cruz Azul - 14 Jan 2024
Liga MXCruz Azul 0–1 CF Pachuca - 24 Aug 2023
Liga MXCF Pachuca 1–0 Cruz Azul
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cruz Azul's attack rates 22% above CF Pachuca's, and CF Pachuca concede 13% fewer than Cruz Azul. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.04 | 1.24 |
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul won 2–1 at CF Pachuca. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 41% and given a win for Cruz Azul 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gabriel Fernández 13' for Cruz Azul, Francisco Venegas 20' for CF Pachuca, Andrés Montaño (penalty) 79' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.86.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave CF Pachuca a 17.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.1% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 29.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.0%, 11.7 points higher than before the match.
For Cruz Azul the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 80.5% going in: 93.7% after a win, 82.7% after a draw, 70.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.7%, 13.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is Cruz Azul's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- CF Pachuca win41%▼ −4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Cruz Azul win33%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.