Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 1-0 Real Sociedad II.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Las Palmas, 25% draw, 29% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Las Palmas at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 15Juan HerzogD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 34Sergio VieraM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 10JeséF
- 14Manu FusterF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 16Mateo AcimovicM
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 22Ale GarcíaM
- 30I. MedinaF
- 3N. OpokuD
- 9J. RecobaM
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 32Lander OlasagastiG
- 22RupérezD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 5K. KitaD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 7Dani DíazM
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 11Alex GarciaM
- 16Gorka GorosabelF
- 18Gorka CarreraF
- 23Unax AgoteD
- 17Lander AstiazaránF
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 2Jon GarroD
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 10Arkaitz MariezkurrenaF
- 12J. OleagaM
- 20Sydney OsazuwaF
- 34Andrews AdjabengF
Form going into Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II
Las Palmas
Segunda División
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II
- 30 January 2026Real Sociedad II 1–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 12 September 2025Las Palmas 2–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 30 January 2022Las Palmas 0–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 29 October 2021Real Sociedad II 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
The result against the call
Las Palmas beat Real Sociedad II 1–0. The model had made a win for Las Palmas its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Jesé Rodríguez 8' for Las Palmas. On expected goals it finished 1.09–0.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Las Palmas a 18.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 14.8% after a win, 20.2% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.8%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.
For Real Sociedad II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 29.7% going in: 23.1% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.1%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.