Rayo Vallecano vs Elche La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Elche.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Rayo Vallecano, 27% draw, 28% Elche — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Rayo Vallecano at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25E. AuderoG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 6P. CissM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 34Iván Alonso MartínM
- 36G. BouareM
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 21Fran PérezF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 18T. LemarM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 11Germán ValeraF
- 6BigasD
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 19G. DianganaF
- 17JosanM
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 24A. OsorioF
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- D1-1away to Getafe19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
Elche
La Liga
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Rayo Vallecano
Elche and Rayo Vallecano have met 7 times in the records we hold, Elche has won 4 of them to Rayo Vallecano's 3.
The record
Elche won the last one 3–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
La LigaRayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche - 3 Apr 2026
La LigaRayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche - 21 Dec 2025
La LigaElche 4–0 Rayo Vallecano - 29 Apr 2023
La LigaElche 4–0 Rayo Vallecano - 3 Oct 2022
La LigaRayo Vallecano 2–1 Elche - 18 Feb 2022
La LigaElche 2–1 Rayo Vallecano - 17 Oct 2021
La LigaRayo Vallecano 2–1 Elche
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and the two defences are almost level too. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.91 | 1.02 |
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Elche
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Elche won 3–0 at Rayo Vallecano. The model had leaned towards a win for Rayo Vallecano at 45% and given a win for Elche 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Federico Redondo Solari (penalty) 23' for Elche, Fernando Niño Rodríguez (penalty) 36' for Elche, Germán Valera 68' for Elche. On expected goals it finished 1.61–2.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rayo Vallecano a 9.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.1% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
For Elche the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.6% going in: 9.0% after a win, 13.7% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.0%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.