24 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Leganes vs Mallorca Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
Referee: Olatz Rivera Olmedo, Spain
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Leganes 1-1 Mallorca.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Leganes, 33% draw, 47% Mallorca — fair odds of 5.00, 3.03 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mallorca at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leganes2%Draw95%Mallorca3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ismael Gharbi
30'
34'
⚽Zito Luvumbo
Rubén Pulido
43'
49'
Antonio Sánchez
52'
Luis García Fernández
54'
Alex Sala
Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez
54'
⚽Álex Millánassist: Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez
57'
61'
Arnau Tenas
Dani Rodriguez
62'
62'
🔁Pablo Torreout: Sergi Darder
🔁Ismael Gharbiout: Zico Buurmeester
66'
🔁Álex Millánout: Unax del Cura
73'
🔁Dani Rodriguezout: Naim Garcia
73'
75'
🔁Alberto Morenoout: Antonio Latorre Grueso
🔁Patrick Sokoout: Andres Campos
80'
🔁Amadou Diawaraout: Yassine Kechta
80'
87'
🔁Zito Luvumboout: Justin Kalumba
87'
🔁Adrian Lisoout: Guille Fernández
Andres Campos
88'
90+1'
Antonio Latorre Grueso

Match stats — Leganes vs Mallorca

52%Possession48%
13Shots10
4On target3
7Corners4
2.64xG0.97

Goals against chances

Leganes1 from 2.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Mallorca1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leganes 4-2-3-1
  • 1Raúl FernándezG
  • 7Rubén PeñaD
  • 4Rubén PulidoD
  • 3Javi MonteroD
  • 15Enric FranquesaD
  • 17Ismaël GharbiM
  • 24A. DiawaraM
  • 19P. SokoM
  • 14Dani RodríguezM
  • 22Álex SancrisM
  • 9Álex MillánF
Substitutes
  • 10Z. BuurmeesterM
  • 2MarvelD
  • 18Andrés CamposF
  • 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
  • 11Naim GarcíaF
  • 8Y. KechtaM
  • 31Nico LozanoG
  • 39Jorge MartínezF
  • 5Ignasi MiquelD
Coach: Luis Carrión
Mallorca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Arnau TenasG
  • 34M. CalatayudD
  • 24M. ValjentD
  • 21RaílloD
  • 5Alberto MorenoD
  • 7Álex SalaM
  • 6Antonio SánchezM
  • 11Zito LuvumboM
  • 20Pablo TorreM
  • 33Adrian LisoM
  • 18FuentesF
Substitutes
  • 9Abdón PratsF
  • 29L. OrejuelaD
  • 4David LópezD
  • 3Toni LatoD
  • 30J. KalumbaF
  • 39J. GarciaM
  • 2Guille FernándezM
  • 10DarderM
  • 25Iván CuéllarG
Coach: Luis García

Form going into Leganes vs Mallorca

Leganes

Segunda División

  • L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026

Mallorca

Segunda División

  • D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
  • W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Leganes144371424-1015
5Mallorca136521810+823

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leganes vs Mallorca

  • 19 April 2025Mallorca 0–0 LeganesLa Liga
  • 31 August 2024Leganes 0–1 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 1 April 2021Mallorca 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
  • 12 December 2020Leganes 0–1 MallorcaSegunda División
  • 19 June 2020Mallorca 1–1 LeganesLa Liga
  • 26 October 2019Leganes 1–0 MallorcaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Leganes and Mallorca

Leganes

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Mallorca

GoalsAssists

  • Fuentes71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leganes and Mallorca drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mallorca at 47% and given a draw 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Zito Luvumbo 34' for Mallorca, Álex Millán 57' for Leganes. On expected goals it finished 2.64–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leganes a 52.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 45.0% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 55.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 52.0%.

For Mallorca the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 19.2% going in: 21.9% after a win, 17.0% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.0%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Leganes v Mallorca has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 23% / 28% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 20% / 33% / 47%: the biggest move is the draw, up 5 points.

  1. Leganes win20%▼ −3
  2. Draw33%▲ +5
  3. Mallorca win47%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.