Valencia vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Valencia 1-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Valencia, 28% draw, 44% Villarreal — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Villarreal at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valencia vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 5César TárregaD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 27David OtorbiM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 18PepeluM
- 11Luis RiojaM
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 25K. van OevelenG
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 39R. SatoM
- 19Dani RabaF
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 10H. ElliottM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 8J. FoythD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 3A. FreemanD
- 11Ilias AkhomachM
- 16C. MaciaM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 2Logan CostaD
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 5A. DiattaM
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
Form going into Valencia vs Villarreal
Valencia
La Liga
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
Villarreal
La Liga
- D0-0Elche17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Villarreal
Valencia and Villarreal have met 7 times in the records we hold, Villarreal has won 4 of them to Valencia's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Villarreal won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| Villarreal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
La LigaValencia 1–2 Villarreal - 22 Feb 2026
La LigaVillarreal 2–1 Valencia - 25 Oct 2025
La LigaValencia 0–2 Villarreal - 15 Feb 2025
La LigaVillarreal 1–1 Valencia - 31 Aug 2024
La LigaValencia 1–1 Villarreal - 17 Mar 2024
La LigaVillarreal 1–0 Valencia - 2 Jan 2024
La LigaValencia 3–1 Villarreal
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Villarreal's attack rates 61% above Valencia's, and Villarreal concede 15% fewer than Valencia. That gives Villarreal the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0.76 | 1.02 |
| Villarreal | 1.22 | 0.87 |
The result against the call
Villarreal won 2–1 at Valencia. The model had made a win for Villarreal its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: José Luis García Vayá (penalty) 38' for Valencia, Alex Freeman 69' for Villarreal, Georges Mikautadze 90+6' for Villarreal. Sent off: Pape Gueye (Villarreal) 79', Harvey Elliott (Valencia) 89'. On expected goals it finished 1.17–1.52.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valencia a 33.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.6% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.4%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
For Villarreal the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.7% going in: 19.3% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.3%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Valencia v Villarreal has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Valencia win28%▼ −1
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Villarreal win44%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.