Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 0-1 Atletico Tucuman.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tigre, 31% draw, 26% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Tigre at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. ZenobioG
- 8M. GarayD
- 2J. LasoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 24F. ÁlvarezD
- 22S. LópezM
- 27S. GonzálezM
- 5B. LeyesM
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 30J. DóminaF
- 29I. RussoF
- 28P. MartínezM
- 21S. MedinaM
- 26L. MoralesG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 33M. MéndezF
- 19A. OviedoF
- 50I. PeluffoF
- 23G. RequenaD
- 11T. SerragoM
- 1L. IngolottiG
- 24L. Di PlácidoD
- 26C. FerreiraD
- 36Luciano VallejoD
- 32J. InfanteD
- 19L. VegaM
- 11R. TesuriM
- 31L. GodoyM
- 10F. NicolaM
- 23N. LaméndolaM
- 18R. Ruíz RodríguezF
- 14A. CaneloF
- 30M. BrondoF
- 28G. CompagnucciD
- 25T. DursoG
- 9L. DíazF
- 5J. FernándezM
- 6G. FerrariD
- 27R. GranilloF
- 8E. HamM
Form going into Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Tigre
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2away to Independiente Rivadavia17 October 2026
- L1-2Banfield10 October 2026
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L2-3Rosario Central17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Tigre
Atletico Tucuman and Tigre have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atletico Tucuman has won 2 of them to Tigre's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
Atletico Tucuman won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Tigre | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 7 goals, an average of 1.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaTigre 0–1 Atletico Tucuman - 12 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 0–0 Tigre - 8 Oct 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 1–2 Tigre - 21 May 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaTigre 0–0 Atletico Tucuman - 17 Aug 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaTigre 0–0 Atletico Tucuman - 15 Sep 2018
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 3–0 Tigre - 25 Feb 2018
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 0–0 Tigre
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Tucuman's attack rates 4% above Tigre's, and Tigre concede 16% fewer than Atletico Tucuman. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 0.75 | 1.34 |
| Tigre | 0.72 | 1.13 |
Leading scorers: Tigre and Atletico Tucuman
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Atletico Tucuman
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Tucuman won 1–0 at Tigre. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigre at 43% and given a win for Atletico Tucuman 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez 72' for Atletico Tucuman. Sent off: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez (Atletico Tucuman) 75'. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tigre a 14.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.8% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.1%, 19.7 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico Tucuman the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.9% going in: under 1% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 17 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tigre v Atletico Tucuman has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 41% / 33% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 31% / 26%: the biggest move is Tigre's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Tigre win43%▲ +2
- Draw31%▼ −2
- Atletico Tucuman win26%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.