Israel
vs
Austria
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Israel 0–1 Austria
The model makes it 24% Israel, 29% draw, 47% Austria — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Israel 0.88, Austria 1.47.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Austria: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Israel's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Austria's from its last 4 matches.
Key facts
- Israel are bottom on 3 points from 5 games; Austria are top on 11 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Israel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Kosovo.
- Austria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rep. Of Ireland.
- Last 5 meetings: Austria 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 September 2026, ended Austria 3–1 Israel.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Israel vs Austria
Has the model earned this number?
Austria at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Israel vs Austria
Israel
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Kosovo14 November 2026
- D1-1away to Rep. Of Ireland4 October 2026
- D0-0Kosovo1 October 2026
- L0-3Rep. Of Ireland27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Austria24 September 2026
Austria
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Rep. Of Ireland14 November 2026
- D1-1away to Kosovo4 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rep. Of Ireland1 October 2026
- W3-1Kosovo27 September 2026
- W3-1Israel24 September 2026
What these results say
- Israel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Austria went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Austria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Israel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Austria | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria vs Israel
Austria and Israel have met 5 times in the records we hold, Austria has won 3 of them to Israel's 2.
The record
Austria won the last one 3–1 on 24 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 |
| Israel | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 14 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 5.40 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Sep 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueAustria 3–1 Israel - 12 Nov 2021
World Cup - Qualification EuropeAustria 4–2 Israel - 4 Sep 2021
World Cup - Qualification EuropeIsrael 5–2 Austria - 10 Oct 2019
Euro ChampionshipAustria 3–1 Israel - 24 Mar 2019
Euro ChampionshipIsrael 4–2 Austria
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Austria's attack rates 73% above Israel's, and Austria concede 4% fewer than Israel. That gives Austria the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
How the call on Israel v Austria has moved
First published on 3 Nov at 25% / 27% / 48% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 24% / 29% / 47%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Israel win24%▼ −1
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Austria win47%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austria the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Israel against 1.47 for Austria. Israel's attack/defence rating is 0.7/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.93 for Austria.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 47% for Austria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Austria to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Israel's ratings add 6 points and Austria's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Israel's ratings39%+6
- Austria's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.