1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% 1899 Hoffenheim, 21% draw, 54% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 4.00, 4.76 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 39M. RotsD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 22A. PrassM
- 10A. HložekM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 29Natnael AbrahaD
- 13BernardoD
- 20B. ContéM
- 15V. GendreyD
- 2R. HranáčD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 23N. TellaM
- 14P. SchickF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 15T. OermannD
- 9Afonso MoreiraF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 5L. BadéD
- 8R. AndrichM
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to Borussia Mönchengladbach18 October 2026
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
- W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen have met 7 times in the records we hold, Bayer Leverkusen has won 4 of them to 1899 Hoffenheim's 3.
The record
1899 Hoffenheim won the last one 3–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Bayer Leverkusen - 17 Jan 2026
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen - 23 Aug 2025
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim - 2 Feb 2025
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim - 14 Sep 2024
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayer Leverkusen - 30 Mar 2024
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 2–1 1899 Hoffenheim - 4 Nov 2023
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bayer Leverkusen's attack rates 24% above 1899 Hoffenheim's, and Bayer Leverkusen concede 16% fewer than 1899 Hoffenheim. That gives Bayer Leverkusen the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.33 | 0.94 |
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1899 Hoffenheim beat Bayer Leverkusen 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayer Leverkusen at 54% and given a win for 1899 Hoffenheim 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andrej Kramarić (penalty) 79' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Alexander Prass 89' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Max Moerstedt 90+5' for 1899 Hoffenheim. Sent off: Alexander Prass (1899 Hoffenheim) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 3.34–0.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1899 Hoffenheim a 10.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.5% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.5%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
For Bayer Leverkusen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 75.7% going in: 79.3% after a win, 73.0% after a draw, 70.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.7%, 5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.