24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Bundesliga prediction & result

Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg
Referee: Josef Spurny
Full time1 – 0

Final score: TSV Hartberg 1-0 Wolfsberger AC.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% TSV Hartberg, 25% draw, 20% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

TSV Hartberg at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

TSV Hartberg97%Draw3%Wolfsberger AC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Jonas Karnerout: Tobias Kainz
62'
🔁Benjamin Markusout: Andrija Radulovic
62'
64'
🔁Sankara William Karamokoout: Matteo Kitz
76'
🔁Giacomo Vrioniout: Phillip Verhounig
76'
🔁Dominik Fitzout: Emanuel Agyeman
🔁Nikolaus Feldhoferout: Oliver Lukic
76'
82'
🔁Simon Piesingerout: Marco Schabauer
82'
🔁Aaron Sky Schwarzout: Luca Hassler
🔁Youba Diarraout: Augustín Urrutia
84'
🔁Magnus Dalpiazout: Jed Drew
84'
⚽Konstantin Schoppassist: Tobias Kainz
85'

Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC

61%Possession39%
24Shots10
3On target3
9Corners1
1.77xG0.52

Goals against chances

TSV Hartberg1 from 1.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Wolfsberger AC0 from 0.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg 3-4-2-1
  • 91Á. PécsiG
  • 27K. SchoppD
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 6Habib CoulibalyD
  • 16M. DalpiazM
  • 4B. MarkušM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
  • 7A. GattermayerM
  • 22M. HoffmanF
Substitutes
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 9A. UrrutiaF
  • 20Paul BratschkoM
  • 11J. DrewF
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 21L. MarićG
  • 2L. PazourekM
  • 49A. RadulovićF
Coach: M. Schopp
Wolfsberger AC 5-3-2
  • 12L. GliklichG
  • 31F. WohlmuthD
  • 15Cheikh Mamadou DiabatéD
  • 6R. BehounekD
  • 30M. SulznerD
  • 11A. SchwarzD
  • 10D. AvdijajM
  • 8S. PiesingerM
  • 36D. FitzM
  • 9G. VrioniF
  • 49S. KaramokoF
Substitutes
  • 25Adama DraméD
  • 1L. GütlbauerG
  • 7L. HasslerM
  • 35Matteo KitzD
  • 32M. PinkF
  • 17Marco SchabauerM
  • 20T. SchrieblM
  • 23P. VerhounigF
  • 34E. AgyemangM
Coach: M. Schmid

Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC

TSV Hartberg

Bundesliga

  • L1-3away to Rapid Vienna16 October 2026
  • W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026

Wolfsberger AC

Bundesliga

  • L0-2WSG Wattens18 October 2026
  • L0-3away to SCR Altach11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4TSV Hartberg126242319+420
12Wolfsberger AC12138826-186

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC

  • 8 November 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 20 September 2025TSV Hartberg 2–2 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
  • 1 May 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–0 TSV HartbergCup
  • 1 March 2025TSV Hartberg 0–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
  • 5 October 2024Wolfsberger AC 2–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 10 December 2023TSV Hartberg 2–0 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga

Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC

TSV Hartberg

GoalsAssists

  • C. Hoffmann61
  • M. Hoffman40

Wolfsberger AC

GoalsAssists

  • G. Vrioni40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 1–0. The model had made a win for TSV Hartberg its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Konstantin Schopp 85' for TSV Hartberg. On expected goals it finished 1.77–0.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave TSV Hartberg a 60.0% chance to finish in the top six: 65.7% after a win, 54.2% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.7%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

For Wolfsberger AC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 83.0% going in: 70.8% after a win, 82.6% after a draw, 87.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.0%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is TSV Hartberg's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. TSV Hartberg win55%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Wolfsberger AC win20%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.