24 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Stadion, Vienna
Referee: Walter Altmann, Austria
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Rapid Vienna 5-1 Austria Lustenau.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Rapid Vienna, 16% draw, 9% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rapid Vienna at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapid Vienna99%Draw1%Austria Lustenau0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ercan Karaassist: Petter Nosakhare Dahl
6'
⚽Nenad Cvetkovićassist: Tonni Adamsen
8'
•Ercan Kara
19'
34'
Robin Voisine
40'
Danilo Soares
⚽Yusuf Demir (pen)
41'
45'
Albin Gashi
55'
🔁Antonio Verinacout: Lenn Jastremski
56'
🔁Lord Afrifaout: Haris Ismailcebioglu
60'
⚽Haris Ismailcebiogluassist: Fabian Gmeiner
⚽Yusuf Demirassist: Jannes Horn
67'
🔁Ercan Karaout: Marco Tilio
75'
🔁Petter Nosakhare Dahlout: Moulaye Haïdara
75'
76'
🔁Pius Grabherout: Lukas Ibertsberger
76'
🔁Dominik Weixelbraunout: Alieu Conateh
76'
🔁Seydou Diarraout: Matthias Maak
🔁Jannes Hornout: Eaden roka
84'
🔁Nicolas Bajliczout: Louis Schaub
84'
⚽Marco Tilioassist: Tonni Adamsen
85'
🔁Yusuf Demirout: Nikolaus Wurmbrand
89'

Match stats — Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

62%Possession38%
19Shots8
7On target4
10Corners2
4.33xG1.07

Goals against chances

Rapid Vienna5 from 4.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Austria Lustenau1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 55N. CvetkovićD
  • 6S. Raux-YaoD
  • 38J. HornD
  • 30N. BajliczM
  • 18M. SeidlM
  • 22Y. DemirM
  • 8T. AdamsenM
  • 10P. DahlM
  • 9E. KaraF
Substitutes
  • 15Nikolaus WurmbrandF
  • 7M. TilioF
  • 20K. AhoussouD
  • 61F. DemirD
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 43M. HaïdaraF
  • 71C. M'BuyiF
  • 2Eaden RokaD
  • 21L. SchaubM
Coach: Johannes Thorup
Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1
  • 27D. SchierlG
  • 7F. GmeinerD
  • 18R. VoisineD
  • 29N. PertlwieserD
  • 3Danilo SoaresD
  • 23P. GrabherM
  • 11D. WeixelbraunM
  • 20L. AfrifaM
  • 24S. DiarraM
  • 17A. GashiM
  • 39A. VerinacF
Substitutes
  • 14P. BenjaminF
  • 30P. BöhmG
  • 10Alieu ConatehF
  • 26L. IbertsbergerD
  • 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
  • 9L. JastremskiF
  • 54Melih AkubulutF
  • 31M. MaakD
  • 33Frederic FlatzG
Coach: M. Mader

Form going into Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

Rapid Vienna

Bundesliga

  • W3-1TSV Hartberg16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Lask Linz11 October 2026

Austria Lustenau

Bundesliga

  • L0-4Lask Linz17 October 2026
  • L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Rapid Vienna121101399+3033
8Austria Lustenau123271530-1511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

  • 3 March 2024Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 7 October 2023Austria Lustenau 0–5 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 29 October 2022Austria Lustenau 3–3 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 7 August 2022Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga

Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau

Rapid Vienna

GoalsAssists

  • E. Kara71
  • P. Dahl71
  • T. Adamsen55

Austria Lustenau

GoalsAssists

  • D. Weixelbraun61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rapid Vienna beat Austria Lustenau 5–1. The model had made a win for Rapid Vienna its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Ercan Kara 6' for Rapid Vienna, Nenad Cvetković 8' for Rapid Vienna, Yusuf Demir (penalty) 41' for Rapid Vienna, Haris Ismailcebioglu 60' for Austria Lustenau, Yusuf Demir 67' for Rapid Vienna, Marco Tilio 85' for Rapid Vienna. On expected goals it finished 4.33–1.07.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rapid Vienna a 56.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 59.2% after a win, 46.0% after a draw, 42.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.2%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

For Austria Lustenau the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 69.0% going in: 51.9% after a win, 64.2% after a draw, 71.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.0%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 66% / 20% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 75% / 16% / 9%: the biggest move is Rapid Vienna's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Rapid Vienna win75%▲ +9
  2. Draw16%▼ −4
  3. Austria Lustenau win9%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.