24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK Bundesliga prediction & result

Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck
Referee: Stefan Macanovic, Austria
Full time1 – 1

Final score: WSG Wattens 1-1 Grazer AK.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% WSG Wattens, 27% draw, 28% Grazer AK — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

WSG Wattens at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

WSG Wattens5%Draw92%Grazer AK3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Alexander Hofleitner (pen)
15'
•Leon Klassen
39'
🔁Anderson Dos Santos Gomesout: Tim Trummer
44'
🔁Jacob Italianoout: Christian Lichtenberger
45+4'
Tim Trummer
🔁David Gugganigout: Drew murray
45'
🔁Moritz Welsout: Lukas Hinterseer
59'
🔁Husein Balićout: Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
59'
🔁Thomas Goigingerout: M. Olakigbe
59'
⚽Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
63'
67'
Leon Klassen
77'
🔁Mark Großeout: Souleyman mandey

Match stats — WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK

57%Possession43%
19Shots12
4On target5
8Corners9
0.83xG2.29

Goals against chances

WSG Wattens1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth
Grazer AK1 from 2.29 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

WSG Wattens 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. HamzićG
  • 23M. BorasD
  • 14D. KubattaD
  • 3D. GugganigD
  • 28M. OswaldD
  • 30M. TafernerM
  • 6Marc StriednigM
  • 36T. GoigingerM
  • 37M. WelsM
  • 11M. ŞatinM
  • 18H. BalićF
Substitutes
  • 43N. ČelićM
  • 13A. EckmayrG
  • 32Raphael GschösserM
  • 16L. HinterseerF
  • 27D. JauneggD
  • 5D. MurrayD
  • 17M. OlakigbeF
  • 10T. SabitzerF
  • 8N. FrederiksenF
Coach: P. Semlic
Grazer AK 3-1-4-2
  • 23C. StankovićG
  • 3L. Vraa-JensenD
  • 21M. SollbauerD
  • 27Y. OberleitnerD
  • 24C. CvetkoM
  • 28AndersonM
  • 14J. ItalianoM
  • 34P. MichorlM
  • 32L. KlassenM
  • 11M. GroßeF
  • 25A. HofleitnerF
Substitutes
  • 10C. LichtenbergerM
  • 9D. MadernerF
  • 17S. MandeyM
  • 72Petar MarkovicD
  • 26C. NichtG
  • 7A. SmitsF
  • 37T. TrummerM
  • 8T. KochM
  • 48M. GraggerD
Coach: G. Scheiblehner

Form going into WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK

WSG Wattens

Bundesliga

  • W2-0away to Wolfsberger AC18 October 2026
  • L1-2Ried10 October 2026

Grazer AK

Bundesliga

  • L1-6away to Sturm Graz18 October 2026
  • D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7WSG Wattens123451518-313
10Grazer AK12246929-2010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK

  • 2 May 2026Grazer AK 4–0 WSG WattensBundesliga
  • 21 March 2026WSG Wattens 1–5 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 8 March 2026WSG Wattens 2–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 16 August 2025Grazer AK 1–1 WSG WattensBundesliga
  • 23 May 2025WSG Wattens 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 29 March 2025Grazer AK 0–0 WSG WattensBundesliga

Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and Grazer AK

WSG Wattens

GoalsAssists

  • N. Frederiksen50

Grazer AK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hofleitner40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

WSG Wattens and Grazer AK drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for WSG Wattens at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alexander Hofleitner (penalty) 9' for Grazer AK, Nikolai Baden Frederiksen 63' for WSG Wattens. On expected goals it finished 0.83–2.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave WSG Wattens a 31.0% chance to finish in the top six: 38.4% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.3%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

For Grazer AK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 40.0% going in: 26.4% after a win, 39.9% after a draw, 48.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 39.9%.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on WSG Wattens v Grazer AK has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is WSG Wattens's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. WSG Wattens win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Grazer AK win28%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.