Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 4-1 Santos Laguna.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Club Tijuana, 27% draw, 29% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Club Tijuana at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 2A. RodriguezG
- 17R. ArcigaD
- 3R. FernandezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 6A. GomezD
- 16A. VegaD
- 11F. GonzalezM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 8I. TonaM
- 7A. PreciadoM
- 9M. El GhezouaniF
- 29J. HernandezG
- 4U. BilbaoD
- 18A. MejiaF
- 33P. N. Ortiz OrozcoD
- 34F. BoyaM
- 20A. ZapataM
- 31Y. PadillaF
- 202J. GonzalezF
- 19D. AbreuF
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 28J. PerezD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25F. SanchezD
- 7D. GonzalezD
- 26R. SordoM
- 21F. VillalbaM
- 23F. CaseresM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 20E. LozanoF
- 33H. HolguinG
- 4J. AbellaD
- 17E. EcheverriaD
- 8S. Mariscal MurraM
- 6J. GuemezM
- 5A. LopezM
- 193L. GomezM
- 19E. AguirreF
- 77K. PalaciosM
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
Club Tijuana
Liga MX
- D2-2away to Toluca22 October 2026
Santos Laguna
Liga MX
- W2-0Pumas UNAM22 October 2026
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Club Tijuana won the last one 4–1 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 |
| Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
Liga MXClub Tijuana 4–1 Santos Laguna - 9 Mar 2026
Liga MXClub Tijuana 1–2 Santos Laguna - 25 Sep 2025
Liga MXSantos Laguna 1–0 Club Tijuana - 20 Apr 2025
Liga MXSantos Laguna 0–4 Club Tijuana - 19 Aug 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 3–1 Santos Laguna - 16 Mar 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Santos Laguna - 5 Oct 2023
Liga MXSantos Laguna 2–1 Club Tijuana
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Club Tijuana's attack rates 3% above Santos Laguna's, and Club Tijuana concede 7% fewer than Santos Laguna. That gives Club Tijuana the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| Santos Laguna | 0.75 | 1.27 |
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna
Club Tijuana
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Tijuana beat Santos Laguna 4–1. The model had made a win for Club Tijuana its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: F. Gonzalez 13' for Club Tijuana, I. Rivero 18' for Club Tijuana, E. Lozano 66' for Santos Laguna, I. Rivero 69' for Club Tijuana, A. Preciado 72' for Club Tijuana. On expected goals it finished 3.22–0.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Tijuana a 40.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 57.3% after a win, 30.6% after a draw, 18.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.3%, 16.9 points higher than before the match.
For Santos Laguna the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 61.3% going in: 85.2% after a win, 64.7% after a draw, 47.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.2%, 14.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Tijuana v Santos Laguna has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Club Tijuana win44%▼ −7
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Santos Laguna win29%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.