Monterrey vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 3-3 Club Tijuana.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Monterrey, 27% draw, 31% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Monterrey at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 4V. GuzmánD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 9D. RossiM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 203A. De NigrisF
- 22L. CárdenasG
- 5F. AmbrízM
- 14É. AguirreM
- 19A. AcevesD
- 11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
- 33S. MedinaD
- 10L. OrellanoF
- 30J. RodríguezM
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 17R. ÁrcigaD
- 3R. FernándezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 16J. VegaD
- 11F. GonzálezM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 8I. TonaM
- 7Adonis PreciadoM
- 9MouradF
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 34F. BoyaM
- 202J. GonzálezF
- 29S. HernándezG
- 188A. MagallonD
- 10G. MoraM
- 33P. OrtízD
- 31Y. PadillaF
- 20Á. ZapataM
Form going into Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
Monterrey
Liga MX
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Puebla22 October 2026
Club Tijuana
Liga MX
- D1-1away to Club America29 October 2026
- W4-1Santos Laguna26 October 2026
- D2-2away to Toluca22 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Monterrey
Club Tijuana and Monterrey have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 5 drawn.
The record
They drew 3–3 at Monterrey on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 14 |
| Monterrey | 1 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 3.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Liga MXMonterrey 3–3 Club Tijuana - 1 Feb 2026
Liga MXMonterrey 2–2 Club Tijuana - 6 Oct 2025
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Monterrey - 30 Mar 2025
Liga MXMonterrey 1–2 Club Tijuana - 24 Aug 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Monterrey - 29 Feb 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 1–1 Monterrey - 26 Oct 2023
Liga MXMonterrey 3–1 Club Tijuana
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Monterrey's attack rates 5% above Club Tijuana's, and Club Tijuana concede 14% fewer than Monterrey. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| Monterrey | 0.81 | 1.37 |
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Club Tijuana
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Club Tijuana
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monterrey and Club Tijuana drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Monterrey at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jackson Porozo 5' for Club Tijuana, Hugo Cuypers (penalty) 19' for Monterrey, Hugo Cuypers 45' for Monterrey, Adonis Preciado 45+4' for Club Tijuana, Lucas Ocampos 57' for Monterrey, Adonis Preciado 60' for Club Tijuana. On expected goals it finished 2.57–0.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monterrey a 54.2% chance to finish in the top eight: 74.6% after a win, 46.2% after a draw, 32.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.2%, 8 points lower than before the match.
For Club Tijuana the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 71.5% going in: 95.1% after a win, 76.5% after a draw, 53.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 76.5%, 5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Monterrey v Club Tijuana has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Monterrey's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Monterrey win42%▼ −2
- Draw27%=
- Club Tijuana win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.