Lecce vs Genoa Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lecce 1-2 Genoa.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lecce, 32% draw, 38% Genoa — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Genoa at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lecce vs Genoa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30W. FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 5J. SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 25A. GalloD
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 79O. NgomM
- 14Y. MalehM
- 11K. N’DriF
- 9N. ŠtulićF
- 99Joël MonteiroF
- 2A. DembéléD
- 7A. Ahmed FatahF
- 3C. NdabaD
- 1M. BleveG
- 32A. BorbeiG
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 8S. FofanaM
- 16O. GandelmanM
- 18G. JeanD
- 1J. BijlowG
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 22J. VásquezD
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 25H. TraorèM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
- 71S. WiafeM
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaF
- 29L. ColomboF
- 16C. DramehD
- 3K. EhizibueD
- 14Lukas KlišysD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 11E. MeichtryM
Form going into Lecce vs Genoa
Lecce
Serie A
- L1-5away to Frosinone29 October 2026
- L0-2Juventus25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Udinese18 October 2026
Genoa
Serie A
- W2-0Juventus28 October 2026
- W1-0Venezia25 October 2026
- L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Lecce
Genoa and Lecce have met 7 times in the records we hold, Genoa has won 3 of them to Lecce's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Genoa won the last one 2–1 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Lecce | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Serie ALecce 1–2 Genoa - 24 May 2026
Serie ALecce 1–0 Genoa - 23 Aug 2025
Serie AGenoa 0–0 Lecce - 14 Mar 2025
Serie AGenoa 2–1 Lecce - 5 Jan 2025
Serie ALecce 0–0 Genoa - 28 Jan 2024
Serie AGenoa 2–1 Lecce - 22 Sep 2023
Serie ALecce 1–0 Genoa
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Genoa's attack rates 11% above Lecce's, and Genoa concede 19% fewer than Lecce. That gives Genoa the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lecce and Genoa
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Genoa won 2–1 at Lecce. The model had made a win for Genoa its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Milutin Osmajić 11' for Genoa, Junior Messias 28' for Genoa, Youssef Maleh 40' for Lecce. On expected goals it finished 0.98–1.30.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lecce a 35.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.3% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 41.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.1%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.
For Genoa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.0% going in: 5.2% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lecce v Genoa has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 30% / 32% / 38%: the biggest move is Lecce's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Lecce win30%▼ −4
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Genoa win38%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.