Santos Laguna vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 1-0 Necaxa.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Santos Laguna, 24% draw, 22% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Santos Laguna at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 19E. AguirreM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 20E. LozanoF
- 5A. LópezM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 24D. MedinaM
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 26R. SordoM
- 193Luis GómezM
- 181Javier OrantesG
- 33R. MartínezD
- 5Kaiky NavesD
- 3A. OliverosD
- 15D. OchoaD
- 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
- 99M. RodríguezM
- 6D. LeyvaM
- 8L. FaravelliM
- 14M. ZaletaM
- 90J. ValenciaF
- 1C. AndradeG
- 7K. RoseroF
- 259Leonardo Arvizo VargasF
- 235Leroy DavisD
- 21M. EspíndolaM
- 2E. MartínezD
- 20F. MéndezD
- 210Joshua Alejandro Palacios PulidoM
- 16P. PedrazaM
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
Santos Laguna
Liga MX
- L1-4away to Club Tijuana26 October 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM22 October 2026
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
Necaxa
Liga MX
- D1-1FC Juarez24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas21 October 2026
- L0-2Atlas17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Santos Laguna
Necaxa and Santos Laguna have met 7 times in the records we hold, Necaxa has won 5 of them to Santos Laguna's 2.
The record
Santos Laguna won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 |
| Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 19 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 29 goals, an average of 4.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Liga MXSantos Laguna 1–0 Necaxa - 11 Jan 2026
Liga MXSantos Laguna 1–3 Necaxa - 1 Nov 2025
Liga MXNecaxa 4–1 Santos Laguna - 8 Feb 2025
Liga MXNecaxa 3–2 Santos Laguna - 2 Sep 2024
Liga MXSantos Laguna 3–2 Necaxa - 13 Apr 2024
Liga MXNecaxa 2–0 Santos Laguna - 25 Sep 2023
Liga MXSantos Laguna 2–5 Necaxa
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Santos Laguna's attack rates 27% above Necaxa's, and Santos Laguna concede 11% fewer than Necaxa. That gives Santos Laguna the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 0.59 | 1.43 |
| Santos Laguna | 0.75 | 1.27 |
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Necaxa
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna beat Necaxa 1–0. The model had made a win for Santos Laguna its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Matias Espindola (own goal) 72' for Santos Laguna. On expected goals it finished 0.77–2.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santos Laguna a 42.6% chance to finish in the top eight: 56.9% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.9%, 14.3 points higher than before the match.
For Necaxa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 94.5% going in: 82.7% after a win, 95.3% after a draw, 98.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.5%, 4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.