1 November 2026, 01:07 UTC

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Referee: Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 4-2 Atlante FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Guadalajara Chivas, 25% draw, 16% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Guadalajara Chivas at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Santiago Sandovalassist: Luis Romo
8'
28'
Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar
⚽Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar (OG)
36'
37'
🔁Eugenio Pizzutoout: Edgar Jiménez
45'
🔁Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobarout: Eduardo Tercero
⚽Santiago Sandovalassist: Efrain Alvarez
53'
•Santiago Sandoval
53'
60'
⚽Martín Sarrafiore
🔁Luis Romoout: Luis Rey
64'
🔁Santiago Sandovalout: Ricardo Marín
64'
⚽Efrain Alvarezassist: Omar Govea
64'
🔁Efrain Alvarezout: Brian Gutierrez
70'
70'
🔁Martín Fernándezout: Luis Puente
🔁Omar Goveaout: Kevin Castañeda
70'
70'
🔁Martín Sarrafioreout: Maximiliano García
80'
•Edgar Jiménez
83'
⚽Jhojan Julio (pen)
🔁Richard Ledezmaout: Jordan Carrillo
86'
90'
🔁Walter Portalesout: Daniel González

Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC

53%Possession47%
15Shots8
7On target4
6Corners4
1.64xG1.61

Goals against chances

Guadalajara Chivas4 from 1.64 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atlante FC2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. RangelG
  • 23D. AguirreD
  • 3D. CampilloD
  • 7L. RomoD
  • 37R. LedezmaM
  • 28R. GonzálezM
  • 6O. GoveaM
  • 5B. GonzálezM
  • 25R. AlvaradoM
  • 10E. ÁlvarezM
  • 30Santiago SandovalF
Substitutes
  • 19K. CastañedaM
  • 33J. CarrilloM
  • 14H. CamberosM
  • 2J. CastilloD
  • 11B. GutiérrezM
  • 57J. HernándezF
  • 17R. MarínF
  • 16L. ReyD
  • 9Á. SepúlvedaF
Coach: G. Milito
Atlante FC 5-3-2
  • 1Ó. JiménezG
  • 29Walter PortalesD
  • 6J. N. CarreraD
  • 32D. BagüíD
  • 44A. QuirozD
  • 25M. FernándezD
  • 8E. PizzutoM
  • 30M. SarrafioreM
  • 19L. CalzadillaM
  • 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
  • 7J. JulioF
Substitutes
  • 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
  • 37W. ClarD
  • 33Jordan GarcíaG
  • 13M. GarcíaM
  • 16José GonzálezM
  • 34E. JiménezM
  • 9L. PuenteF
  • 3G. SánchezD
  • 4E. TerceroD
Coach: Miguel Herrera

Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC

Guadalajara Chivas

Liga MX

  • W1-0away to Monterrey25 October 2026
  • W1-0Necaxa21 October 2026
  • D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026

Atlante FC

Liga MX

  • L0-1Atletico San Luis24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Juarez21 October 2026
  • L1-2Pumas UNAM17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Guadalajara Chivas168622615+1130
16Atlante FC163581626-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Guadalajara Chivas beat Atlante FC 4–2. The model had made a win for Guadalajara Chivas its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Santiago Sandoval 8' for Guadalajara Chivas, Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar (own goal) 36' for Guadalajara Chivas, Santiago Sandoval 53' for Guadalajara Chivas, Martín Sarrafiore 60' for Atlante FC, Efrain Alvarez 64' for Guadalajara Chivas, Jhojan Julio (penalty) 83' for Atlante FC. On expected goals it finished 1.64–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Guadalajara Chivas a 25.8% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 32.8% after a win, 14.9% after a draw, 5.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.8%, 7 points higher than before the match.

For Atlante FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 57.1% going in: 19.1% after a win, 49.8% after a draw, 67.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.5%, 10.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Guadalajara Chivas v Atlante FC has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 61% / 23% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 59% / 25% / 16%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Guadalajara Chivas win59%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Atlante FC win16%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.