Club America vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club America 2-2 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Club America, 23% draw, 29% Toluca — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Club America at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club America vs Toluca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. MalagónG
- 5K. ÁlvarezD
- 14S. BuenoD
- 15S. RamosD
- 24F. RossanoD
- 3I. ReyesM
- 28É. SánchezM
- 12I. ViolanteM
- 8Carlos ÁlvarezM
- 22Ó. PereaM
- 9H. MartínF
- 26C. BorjaD
- 93M. BorjaF
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 13A. CervantesM
- 30R. CotaG
- 20A. GutiérrezM
- 206Derek JimenezM
- 2E. LaraD
- 32M. VázquezD
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 19S. SimónD
- 4B. MéndezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 24F. ArceM
- 5F. RomeroM
- 11HelinhoM
- 29J. DíazM
- 8N. CastroM
- 16F. ViñasF
- 9A. VegaF
- 15P. PérezM
- 25E. LópezD
- 35É. GutiérrezM
- 1H. GonzálezG
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 13LuanD
- 26PaulinhoF
- 2D. BarbosaD
Form going into Club America vs Toluca
Club America
Liga MX
- D1-1Club Tijuana29 October 2026
- L1-2CF Pachuca26 October 2026
- W5-2away to Atlas22 October 2026
Toluca
Liga MX
- D1-1away to Leon24 October 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana22 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico San Luis18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Toluca
Club America and Toluca have met 7 times in the records we hold, Toluca has won 3 of them to Club America's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Club America on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 |
| Toluca | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Liga MXClub America 2–2 Toluca - 19 Apr 2026
Liga MXClub America 2–1 Toluca - 9 Nov 2025
Liga MXToluca 2–0 Club America - 21 Jul 2025
Campeón de CampeonesClub America 1–3 Toluca - 26 May 2025
Liga MXToluca 2–0 Club America - 23 May 2025
Liga MXClub America 0–0 Toluca - 1 Mar 2025
Liga MXClub America 3–0 Toluca
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Club America's attack rates 6% above Toluca's, and Toluca concede 11% fewer than Club America. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.03 | 1.30 |
| Toluca | 0.97 | 1.16 |
Leading scorers: Club America and Toluca
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín113
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club America and Toluca drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Club America at 48% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Federico Viñas 42' for Toluca, Henry Martin 62' for Club America, Alexis Vega 87' for Toluca, Henry Martin (penalty) 90+2' for Club America. Sent off: Santiago Bueno (Club America) 85', Andres Pereira (Toluca) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 2.08–1.94.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club America a 50.9% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 68.4% after a win, 41.6% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.6%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.
For Toluca the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 88.8% going in: 99.7% after a win, 92.4% after a draw, 83.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 92.4%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.