League A - 6 · 15 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Croatia vs Czech Republic UEFA Nations League prediction

Opus Arena, Osijek
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Our model says: Croatia 2–1 Czech Republic

The model makes it 56% Croatia, 24% draw, 20% Czech Republic — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Croatia 2.03, Czech Republic 1.03.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.

One-sided: Croatia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Croatia's rating is built from its last 4 matches; Czech Republic's from its last 3 matches.

Key facts

  • Croatia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to England.
  • Czech Republic have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Spain.
  • Last 5 meetings: Croatia 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Czech Republic 1–2 Croatia.

More Nations League predictions

All Nations League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Croatia vs Czech Republic

56%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Croatia win Draw Czech Republic win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read Croatia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Croatia at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Croatia vs Czech Republic

Croatia

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to England12 November 2026
  • L1-2Spain6 October 2026
  • L0-7England3 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Czech Republic26 September 2026

Czech Republic

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Spain12 November 2026

What these results say

  • Croatia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Croatia had three goals or more.
  • Croatia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Croatia vs Czechia

Croatia and Czechia have met 5 times in the records we hold, Croatia has won 2 of them to Czechia's 0, with 3 drawn.

The record

Croatia won the last one 2–1 on 26 Sep 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Croatia230105
Czechia032510

Between them these 5 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 26 Sep 2026
    UEFA Nations League    Czechia 1–2 Croatia
  • 9 Oct 2025
    World Cup - Qualification Europe    Czechia 0–0 Croatia
  • 9 Jun 2025
    World Cup - Qualification Europe    Croatia 5–1 Czechia
  • 18 Jun 2021
    Euro Championship    Croatia 1–1 Czechia
  • 17 Jun 2016
    Euro Championship    Czechia 2–2 Croatia

How the model rates them now

The ratings sit on one scale across every league we cover. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Croatia1.210.84

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Croatia Czech Republic
1.21 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.98
0.84 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.24
2.03 Model expected goals (this match) 1.03

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Croatia the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Croatia against 1.03 for Czech Republic. Croatia's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.24 for Czech Republic.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 56% for Croatia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Croatia to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Croatia's ratings add 7 points and Czech Republic's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 56%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level39%+1
  4. Croatia's ratings46%+7
  5. Czech Republic's ratings56%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.