Valladolid vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Valladolid 4-3 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Valladolid, 28% draw, 23% Leganes — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Valladolid at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valladolid vs Leganes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 14Iván AlejoD
- 12Miguel RubioD
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 24S. JurićM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 23T. AbedM
- 30Víctor FernándezF
- 19Adrian ArnuncioF
- 17Victor BarberáF
- 3Homam AhmedD
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 18ClercD
- 33Tomás Fernández SabatiniF
- 6M. LachuerM
- 13Dani MartínG
- 5Ramón MartínezD
- 2TrilliD
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 7Rubén PeñaD
- 4Rubén PulidoD
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 24A. DiawaraM
- 17Ismaël GharbiM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 14Dani RodríguezM
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 9Álex MillánF
- 2MarvelD
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 11Naim GarcíaF
- 38Álex GonzálezG
- 39Jorge MartínezF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 19P. SokoF
Form going into Valladolid vs Leganes
Valladolid
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
- L2-3Eldense18 October 2026
Leganes
Segunda División
- D1-1Mallorca24 October 2026
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Valladolid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 18 |
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Leganes
- 14 March 2026Valladolid 3–2 LeganesSegunda División
- 11 January 2026Leganes 3–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 24 May 2025Leganes 3–0 ValladolidLa Liga
- 10 October 2024Leganes 3–1 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
- 28 August 2024Valladolid 0–0 LeganesLa Liga
- 3 February 2024Leganes 0–0 ValladolidSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Leganes
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valladolid beat Leganes 4–3. The model had made a win for Valladolid its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Miguel Rubio 6' for Valladolid, Álex Millán 21' for Leganes, Miguel Rubio 24' for Valladolid, Adrian Arnu 30' for Valladolid, Tay Abed 54' for Valladolid, Álvaro Morata 68' for Leganes, Álvaro Morata 90+1' for Leganes. On expected goals it finished 2.90–2.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valladolid a 21.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 17.9% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.9%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
For Leganes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 45.9% going in: 37.4% after a win, 45.2% after a draw, 49.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.5%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Valladolid v Leganes has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 50% / 29% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Leganes's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Valladolid win49%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Leganes win23%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.