2 November 2026, 20:15 UTC

Benfica vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Referee: Bruno Pires Costa
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Benfica 1-0 Alverca.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Benfica, 18% draw, 12% Alverca — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica98%Draw2%Alverca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Yaya Bojang
25'
•Yaya Bojang
🔁Andreas Schjelderupout: Claudio Echeverri
45'
⚽Vangelis Pavlidis (pen)
51'
58'
Francisco Chiquinho
59'
🔁Lucas Figueiredo dos Santosout: Matheus Franca
59'
🔁Francisco Chissumbaout: Diogo Spencer
63'
Ian Luccas
Clément Lenglet
65'
🔁Dodi Lukebakioout: Rafa Silva
69'
75'
🔁Dawda Camara Sankharéout: Vivaldo Semedo
75'
🔁Ian Luccasout: Zé Rafael
86'
🔁Isaac Jamesout: Cedric Nuozzi
🔁João Palhinhaout: Manuel Silva
90+2'
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Jhon Durán
90+2'
🔁Gianluca Prestianniout: Jakub Kamiński
90+3'

Match stats — Benfica vs Alverca

65%Possession35%
13Shots8
4On target4
8Corners5
1.68xG0.62

Goals against chances

Benfica1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Alverca0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24Samuel SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44Tomás AraújoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 8F. AursnesM
  • 36João PalhinhaM
  • 11D. LukebakioM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 21A. SchjelderupM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 10H. SudakovM
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 16ManuM
  • 13J. KamińskiF
  • 88Tiago FreitasM
  • 34S. El KarouaniD
  • 30C. EcheverriM
  • 22J. DuránF
  • 3A. CircatiD
Coach: Marco Silva
Alverca 3-4-3
  • 31Matheus MendesG
  • 4Y. BojangD
  • 21Sergi GómezD
  • 12I. JamesD
  • 2ZoubdiM
  • 25Ian LuccasM
  • 6D. GuiM
  • 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  • 10ChiquinhoF
  • 19D. CamaraF
  • 22FigueiredoF
Substitutes
  • 18Z. KassaryM
  • 93Zé RafaelM
  • 3J. MartínezD
  • 26Matheus FrançaF
  • 8Vasco MoreiraM
  • 11C. NuozziF
  • 23André PauloG
  • 9Vivaldo SemedoF
  • 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesD
Coach: Sérgio Ferreira

Form going into Benfica vs Alverca

Benfica

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1away to Santa Clara26 October 2026
  • W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026

Alverca

Primeira Liga

  • L0-1Arouca24 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
  • W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Benfica119113010+2028
11Alverca113351415-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benfica vs Alverca

  • 8 February 2026Benfica 2–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 31 August 2025Alverca 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Benfica and Alverca

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Pavlidis113
  • G. Prestianni74

Alverca

GoalsAssists

  • Vivaldo Semedo30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica beat Alverca 1–0. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Vangelis Pavlidis (penalty) 51' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 1.68–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benfica a 69.0% chance to finish in the top two: 71.7% after a win, 62.2% after a draw, 58.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.7%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.