24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg Bundesliga prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Referee: Bastian Dankert, Germany
Full time4 – 0

Final score: RB Leipzig 4-0 SV Elversberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% RB Leipzig, 21% draw, 23% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

RB Leipzig at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

RB Leipzig99%Draw1%SV Elversberg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Andrija Maksimovićout: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
45'
⚽Tidiam Gomisassist: Antonio Nusa
48'
59'
🔁Maurice Krattenmacherout: Raif Adam
59'
🔁Jan Gyamerahout: Luca Sirch
Rocco Reitz
59'
🔁Rocco Reitzout: Brajan Gruda
62'
⚽Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruzassist: Antonio Nusa
66'
71'
🔁David Mokwaout: Noel Futkeu
71'
🔁Frederik Schmahlout: Francis Onyeka
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Nicolas Seiwald
72'
🔁Ezechiel Banzuziout: Christoph Baumgartner
72'
74'
Lasse Günther
82'
🔁Lasse Güntherout: Cole Campbell
⚽Christoph Baumgartnerassist: Brajan Gruda
84'
🔁Tidiam Gomisout: Abdoul Kone
87'
⚽Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruzassist: Abdoul Kone
90+4'

Match stats — RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

55%Possession45%
13Shots5
6On target1
4Corners6
2.91xG0.68

Goals against chances

RB Leipzig4 from 2.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
SV Elversberg0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig 4-5-1
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 39B. HenrichsD
  • 4W. OrbánD
  • 3M. EstèveD
  • 35Max FinkgräfeD
  • 30A. MaksimovićM
  • 20R. ReitzM
  • 21N. El AynaouiM
  • 6E. BanzuziM
  • 7A. NusaM
  • 27T. GomisF
Substitutes
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 14C. BaumgartnerM
  • 10B. GrudaF
  • 2A. KonéD
  • 23C. LukebaD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 40RômuloF
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
Coach: M. Demichelis
SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
  • 20N. KristofG
  • 30J. GyamerahD
  • 19L. PinckertD
  • 31M. RohrD
  • 21L. GüntherD
  • 43F. KeidelM
  • 8Ł. PorębaM
  • 25L. PetkovM
  • 17F. SchmahlM
  • 7M. KrattenmacherM
  • 42D. MokwaF
Substitutes
  • 15R. AdamF
  • 28T. BossG
  • 39William Cole CampbellF
  • 6A. CondéM
  • 9N. FutkeuF
  • 3F. Le JoncourD
  • 2N. MickelsonD
  • 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
  • 26L. SirchD
Coach: V. Wagner

Form going into RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

RB Leipzig

Bundesliga

  • L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
  • W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026

SV Elversberg

Bundesliga

  • W4-3FC Augsburg17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4RB Leipzig96032713+1418
7SV Elversberg94141718-113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

  • 2 March 2014RB Leipzig 2–0 SV Elversberg3. Liga
  • 7 September 2013SV Elversberg 1–0 RB Leipzig3. Liga

Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg

RB Leipzig

GoalsAssists

  • C. Nkunku52
  • Rômulo50
  • A. Nusa47

SV Elversberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Krattenmacher41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

RB Leipzig beat SV Elversberg 4–0. The model had made a win for RB Leipzig its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tidiam Gomis 48' for RB Leipzig, Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz 66' for RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner 84' for RB Leipzig, Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz 90+4' for RB Leipzig. On expected goals it finished 2.91–0.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave RB Leipzig a 47.3% chance to finish in the top four: 50.7% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 39.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For SV Elversberg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.2% going in: 15.5% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.8%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 23% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 21% / 23%: the biggest move is RB Leipzig's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. RB Leipzig win56%▲ +5
  2. Draw21%▼ −2
  3. SV Elversberg win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.