Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Borussia Dortmund, 19% draw, 15% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 1.52, 5.26 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 21Fábio SilvaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 39F. ManéD
- 40S. InacioF
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 44E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 14M. BeierF
- 1N. AtuboluG
- 34N. CollinsD
- 4R. KochD
- 3L. BrassierD
- 2Elias BaumD
- 20R. DōanM
- 15N. Aséko NkiliM
- 25R. OnyedikaM
- 8F. ChaïbiM
- 11Y. EbnoutalibF
- 9J. BurkardtF
- 42C. UzunM
- 37J. MaluzeD
- 26K. KosugiD
- 7A. KnauffF
- 40Kauã SantosG
- 6O. HøjlundM
- 27M. GötzeM
- 31L. ArrhovM
- 29A. AmaimouniF
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
- D0-0away to Union Berlin17 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
- W1-01. FC Köln16 October 2026
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt have met 7 times in the records we hold, Borussia Dortmund has won 4 of them to Eintracht Frankfurt's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Borussia Dortmund won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt - 8 May 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–2 Eintracht Frankfurt - 9 Jan 2026
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 3–3 Borussia Dortmund - 28 Oct 2025
DFB PokalEintracht Frankfurt 1–1 Borussia Dortmund - 17 Jan 2025
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 2–0 Borussia Dortmund - 24 Aug 2024
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt - 17 Mar 2024
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Borussia Dortmund's attack rates 8% above Eintracht Frankfurt's, and Borussia Dortmund concede 49% fewer than Eintracht Frankfurt. That gives Borussia Dortmund the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.21 | 0.58 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.12 | 1.13 |
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- F. Nmecha40
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib61
- J. Burkardt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Maximilian Beier 80' for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Borussia Dortmund a 82.4% chance to finish in the top four: 84.7% after a win, 79.8% after a draw, 75.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.7%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Eintracht Frankfurt the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 5.3% going in: 2.6% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 63% / 20% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 66% / 19% / 15%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win66%▲ +3
- Draw19%▼ −1
- Eintracht Frankfurt win15%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.