30 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga prediction & result

Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Referee: Sascha Stegemann
Full time4 – 1

Final score: SV Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% SV Elversberg, 23% draw, 36% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SV Elversberg at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SV Elversberg99%Draw1%FSV Mainz 050%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Phillipp Mwene
⚽Felix Keidel
7'
⚽Francis Onyekaassist: David Mokwa
26'
33'
Danny da Costa
⚽Maurice Krattenmacher
45+1'
63'
🔁Nadiem Amiriout: Benedict Hollerbach
63'
🔁Phillip Tietzout: Ransford Königsdörffer
63'
🔁Phillipp Mweneout: Silvan Widmer
63'
🔁Paul Nebelout: Lennard Maloney
65'
•Ransford Königsdörffer
🔁Lasse Güntherout: Nicholas Mickelson
68'
75'
Ransford Königsdörffer
🔁Francis Onyekaout: Frederik Schmahl
77'
🔁Maurice Krattenmacherout: Cole Campbell
77'
85'
Stefan Posch
87'
🔁Kaishu Sanoout: Eric Martel
🔁David Mokwaout: Luca Schnellbacher
88'
🔁Lukas Petkovout: Raif Adam
88'
⚽Cole Campbellassist: Nicholas Mickelson
90'
90+2'
⚽Benedict Hollerbach
90+5'
Stefan Posch

Match stats — SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

54%Possession46%
13Shots10
6On target2
5Corners11
1.02xG1.23

Goals against chances

SV Elversberg4 from 1.02 xGmore than the chances were worth
FSV Mainz 051 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
  • 20N. KristofG
  • 26L. SirchD
  • 19L. PinckertD
  • 31M. RohrD
  • 21L. GüntherD
  • 43F. KeidelM
  • 8Ł. PorębaM
  • 25L. PetkovM
  • 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
  • 7M. KrattenmacherM
  • 42D. MokwaF
Substitutes
  • 15R. AdamF
  • 28T. BossG
  • 39William Cole CampbellF
  • 6A. CondéM
  • 9N. FutkeuF
  • 3F. Le JoncourD
  • 2N. MickelsonD
  • 17F. SchmahlM
  • 24L. SchnellbacherM
Coach: V. Wagner
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
  • 27R. ZentnerG
  • 21D. da CostaD
  • 4S. PoschD
  • 48K. PotulskiD
  • 19A. CaciM
  • 8P. NebelM
  • 6K. SanoM
  • 10N. AmiriM
  • 2P. MweneM
  • 23S. BeckerF
  • 9P. TietzF
Substitutes
  • 30S. WidmerD
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 5E. MartelM
  • 15L. MaloneyM
  • 7Lee Jae-SungM
  • 11R. KönigsdörfferF
  • 17B. HollerbachF
  • 3F. GruberD
  • 16S. BellD
Coach: U. Fischer

Form going into SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

SV Elversberg

Bundesliga

  • L0-4away to RB Leipzig24 October 2026
  • W4-3FC Augsburg17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026

FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga

  • L2-3Werder Bremen24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
  • L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7SV Elversberg94141718-113
12FSV Mainz 0593151819-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

  • 12 August 2023SV Elversberg 0–1 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
  • 8 August 2021SV Elversberg 2–2 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal

Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05

SV Elversberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Krattenmacher41

FSV Mainz 05

GoalsAssists

  • P. Tietz60
  • A. Caci33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SV Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 4–1. The model had made a win for SV Elversberg its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Felix Keidel 7' for SV Elversberg, Francis Onyeka 26' for SV Elversberg, Maurice Krattenmacher 45+1' for SV Elversberg, Cole Campbell 90' for SV Elversberg, Benedict Hollerbach 90+2' for FSV Mainz 05. Sent off: Stefan Posch (FSV Mainz 05) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FSV Mainz 05 a 6.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.7% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.1%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05 has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 43% / 25% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 23% / 36%: the biggest move is FSV Mainz 05's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. SV Elversberg win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. FSV Mainz 05 win36%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.