Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fortuna Sittard, 26% draw, 30% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Fortuna Sittard at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 15N. de GrootD
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 6S. van OtteleM
- 20É. MichutM
- 7K. PetersonF
- 14S. SimonsF
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandF
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
- 4Iván MárquezD
- 5Y. OukiliM
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 24D. SinkgravenD
- 2S. WylinD
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 12K. BosD
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 28N. GroenF
- 8I. YegoianF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraF
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 15S. JanssenD
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen18 October 2026
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior and Fortuna Sittard have met 7 times in the records we hold, Fortuna Sittard has won 4 of them to Excelsior's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Fortuna Sittard won the last one 1–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior - 20 Feb 2026
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior - 19 Oct 2025
EredivisieExcelsior 1–0 Fortuna Sittard - 3 Mar 2024
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 5–2 Excelsior - 26 Aug 2023
EredivisieExcelsior 2–2 Fortuna Sittard - 21 May 2023
EredivisieExcelsior 3–0 Fortuna Sittard - 17 Sep 2022
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Fortuna Sittard's attack rates 17% above Excelsior's, and Fortuna Sittard concede 19% fewer than Excelsior. That gives Fortuna Sittard the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 0.65 | 1.37 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.76 | 1.11 |
The result against the call
Fortuna Sittard beat Excelsior 1–0. The model had made a win for Fortuna Sittard its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Rodrigo Guth 90+1' for Fortuna Sittard. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Sittard a 3.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.1% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.1%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
For Excelsior the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.9% going in: 5.1% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Fortuna Sittard's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Fortuna Sittard win44%▲ +7
- Draw26%=
- Excelsior win30%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.