NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Groningen.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% NEC Nijmegen, 25% draw, 33% Groningen — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
NEC Nijmegen at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. CrettazG
- 4P. SchuursD
- 22A. KaplanD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 34Kevin KersM
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 9T. CheryM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 30B. LinssenF
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 5M. BakkerD
- 18D. GeigerM
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 12N. PolsterG
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 1E. VaessenG
- 33H. HateboerD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 24P. ClementM
- 14J. SchreudersM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 44Besnik MashukuM
- 20Nils EggensF
- 7T. HernesM
- 18T. LandM
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 16A. NordinM
- 11J. OndrejkaF
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026
Groningen
Eredivisie
- L2-5Ajax18 October 2026
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen
Groningen and NEC Nijmegen have met 7 times in the records we hold, NEC Nijmegen has won 4 of them to Groningen's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at NEC Nijmegen on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 2–2 Groningen - 10 May 2026
EredivisieGroningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen - 9 Nov 2025
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 2–0 Groningen - 19 Jul 2025
Friendlies ClubsGroningen 1–2 NEC Nijmegen - 8 Feb 2025
EredivisieGroningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen - 3 Nov 2024
EredivisieNEC Nijmegen 6–0 Groningen - 25 Apr 2023
EredivisieGroningen 0–1 NEC Nijmegen
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Groningen's attack rates 15% above NEC Nijmegen's, and NEC Nijmegen concede 14% fewer than Groningen. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.84 | 1.10 |
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for NEC Nijmegen at 42% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 11' for Groningen, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 34' for Groningen, Clement Bischoff 57' for NEC Nijmegen, Noe Lebreton 71' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 1.88–1.51.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave NEC Nijmegen a 5.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.2% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.8%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For Groningen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.7% going in: 14.2% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.9%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on NEC Nijmegen v Groningen has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is Groningen's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- NEC Nijmegen win42%▼ −2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Groningen win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.