Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% Sparta Rotterdam, 22% draw, 60% Ajax — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 6N. VerschurenD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 7Robin van CruijsenM
- 8J. ToornstraM
- 10Cedric HatenboerM
- 11I. BabadiM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 15G. VianelloD
- 17M. van BergenF
- 21C. TerhoF
- 18A. RoaldsøyM
- 12B. ReithD
- 14Teo QuinteroD
- 30P. KuiperG
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 36D. JanseD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 68A. OuazaneF
- 17D. BlindD
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 10O. GloukhM
- 22J. HeerkensG
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 26M. PaesG
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
Ajax
Eredivisie
- W5-2away to Groningen18 October 2026
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam have met 7 times in the records we hold, Ajax has won 4 of them to Sparta Rotterdam's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Ajax won the last one 2–1 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 8 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax - 14 Mar 2026
EredivisieAjax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam - 4 Oct 2025
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 3–3 Ajax - 27 Apr 2025
EredivisieAjax 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam - 22 Dec 2024
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 0–2 Ajax - 17 Mar 2024
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 2–2 Ajax - 9 Dec 2023
EredivisieAjax 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Ajax's attack rates 47% above Sparta Rotterdam's, and Ajax concede 44% fewer than Sparta Rotterdam. That gives Ajax the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.09 | 0.79 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.74 | 1.41 |
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax won 2–1 at Sparta Rotterdam. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ajax at 60%. The goals: Abdellah Ouazane 22' for Ajax, Jens Toornstra 43' for Sparta Rotterdam, Tolu Arokodare 45+1' for Ajax. On expected goals it finished 0.93–1.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sparta Rotterdam a 42.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.4% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 45.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.4%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
For Ajax the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.2% going in: 79.7% after a win, 73.9% after a draw, 71.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.7%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 20% / 22% / 58% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 18% / 22% / 60%: the biggest move is Sparta Rotterdam's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Sparta Rotterdam win18%▼ −2
- Draw22%=
- Ajax win60%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.