PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Feyenoord.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% PSV Eindhoven, 23% draw, 31% Feyenoord — fair odds of 2.17, 4.35 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 18F. KostićD
- 24K. SanoM
- 17Mauro JúniorM
- 19E. BajraktarevicM
- 20G. TilM
- 5I. PerišićM
- 7R. van BommelF
- 23M. HansenF
- 42S. CornecionM
- 31N. FernandezM
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 27D. ManF
- 1N. OlijG
- 35A. SantosM
- 1T. ErnstG
- 26G. ReadD
- 4T. WatanabeD
- 6J. St. JusteD
- 35Mika MàrmolD
- 8G. ZechiëlM
- 34C. VanhoutteM
- 28O. TarghallineM
- 23A. Hadj-MoussaF
- 19Nacho FerriF
- 10L. ValenteF
- 20M. DeijlD
- 50Theodoros DelianidisM
- 27G. DiarraF
- 33F. KastenmeierG
- 24T. KraaijeveldM
- 16Javi LópezD
- 7J. ModerM
- 57J. SchakenF
- 14S. SteijnM
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
- L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
Feyenoord
Eredivisie
- W4-3away to Telstar17 October 2026
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | +19 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven have met 7 times in the records we hold, PSV Eindhoven has won 5 of them to Feyenoord's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at PSV Eindhoven on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 28 goals, an average of 4.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 1–1 Feyenoord - 1 Feb 2026
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 3–0 Feyenoord - 26 Oct 2025
EredivisieFeyenoord 2–3 PSV Eindhoven - 11 May 2025
EredivisieFeyenoord 2–3 PSV Eindhoven - 5 Feb 2025
KNVB BekerPSV Eindhoven 2–0 Feyenoord - 22 Dec 2024
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 3–0 Feyenoord - 4 Aug 2024
Super CupPSV Eindhoven 4–4 Feyenoord
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, PSV Eindhoven's attack rates 20% above Feyenoord's, and PSV Eindhoven concede 8% fewer than Feyenoord. That gives PSV Eindhoven the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.23 | 0.93 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.48 | 0.86 |
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- A. Hadj-Moussa72
- Nacho Ferri63
- G. Zechiël54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for PSV Eindhoven at 46% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Guus Til 21' for PSV Eindhoven, Anis Hadj Moussa 54' for Feyenoord. On expected goals it finished 1.95–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PSV Eindhoven a 34.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 40.7% after a win, 31.9% after a draw, 24.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 31.9%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
For Feyenoord the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 43.4% going in: 53.6% after a win, 43.9% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.9%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.