AZ Alkmaar vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 0-2 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% AZ Alkmaar, 28% draw, 32% Twente — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
AZ Alkmaar at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 29W. HoedtD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 11R. DaalM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 30D. KasiusD
- 54Jerolldino BergraafF
- 27Wassim bouzianeF
- 8J. ClasieM
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 18B. KovacsF
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 24A. OufkirF
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 16J. DrommelG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 11D. RotsM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 27S. ØrjasæterM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 18Jordy BawuahM
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 39J. MeilinkD
- 22R. PasveerG
- 7M. PjacaF
- 2M. RosiakD
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 20T. van den BeltM
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to Cambuur18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
Twente
Eredivisie
- L1-2Utrecht18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
AZ Alkmaar and Twente have met 7 times in the records we hold, AZ Alkmaar has won 4 of them to Twente's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Twente won the last one 2–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 |
| Twente | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
EredivisieAZ Alkmaar 0–2 Twente - 3 May 2026
EredivisieAZ Alkmaar 2–2 Twente - 3 Feb 2026
KNVB BekerAZ Alkmaar 2–1 Twente - 30 Nov 2025
EredivisieTwente 1–0 AZ Alkmaar - 25 May 2025
EredivisieAZ Alkmaar 3–2 Twente - 14 May 2025
EredivisieTwente 2–3 AZ Alkmaar - 21 Dec 2024
EredivisieAZ Alkmaar 1–0 Twente
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Twente's attack rates 19% above AZ Alkmaar's, and Twente concede 16% fewer than AZ Alkmaar. That gives Twente the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 0.94 | 0.91 |
| Twente | 1.12 | 0.76 |
Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Twente
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Twente won 2–0 at AZ Alkmaar. The model had leaned towards a win for AZ Alkmaar at 40% and given a win for Twente 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter 84' for Twente, Lucas hesselink of vennegoor 90+3' for Twente. Sent off: Daouda Weidmann (Twente) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.27–2.07.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AZ Alkmaar a 58.6% chance to finish in the top four: 65.3% after a win, 57.6% after a draw, 51.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.0%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.
For Twente the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 47.6% going in: 56.2% after a win, 47.3% after a draw, 41.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.2%, 8.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.