2 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result

Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Referee: Vasil Minev
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Septemvri Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Arda Kardzhali, 25% draw, 19% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arda Kardzhali at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arda Kardzhali97%Draw3%Septemvri Sofia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Svetoslav Kovachevassist: Stanislav Ivanov
6'
23'
⚽Andre Liberal (pen)
23'
⚽Andre Liberal
⚽Martin Paskalevassist: Dimitar Velkovski
26'
30'
Andre Liberal
31'
Valentine Ozornwafor
•Stanislav Ivanov
41'
45'
nicolas fontaine
Antonio Vutov
45'
46'
🔁Sergeev petar gospodinovout: Kubrat Onasci
64'
🔁nicolas fontaineout: Pedro Igor
🔁Antonio Vutovout: Dominik Yankov
65'
70'
Yoan Baurenski
🔁Stanislav Ivanovout: Birsent Karagaren
73'
🔁Preslav·Bachevout: Nabil Makni
73'
78'
🔁pedrinhoout: borislav stoichkov
78'
🔁Andre Liberalout: aleksandar dzhamov
79'
🔁Nikola Llievout: viktor dobrev
🔁Svetoslav Kovachevout: Atanas Kabov
83'
Martin Paskalev
84'
90'
viktor dobrev

Match stats — Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia

58%Possession42%
15Shots7
5On target4
8Corners1

Line-ups

Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GospodinovG
  • 6V. PopovD
  • 24M. PaskalevD
  • 5V. LyubenovD
  • 35D. VelkovskiD
  • 80L. KotevM
  • 21V. VelevD
  • 10S. KovachevF
  • 39A. VutovM
  • 91S. IvanovF
  • 16P. BachevF
Substitutes
  • 2Derick Fernando da SilvaD
  • 26B. AkandzhaM
  • 99B. KaragarenF
  • 22Y. GeorgievG
  • 4David Akintola IdowuD
  • 11A. KabovF
  • 70Nabil MakniF
  • 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
  • 18S. VasilevD
Coach: A. Tunchev
Septemvri Sofia 3-5-2
  • 12V. IvanovG
  • 25S. VulikićD
  • 4M. HristovD
  • 26V. OzornwaforD
  • 23pedrinhoD
  • 17N. FontaineF
  • 5Y. BaurenskiM
  • 10N. IlievM
  • 3P. GospodinovD
  • 29F. HerardF
  • 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
Substitutes
  • 21Viktor DobrevM
  • 9V. MihaylovM
  • 7E. RibeiroF
  • 28S. StoichkovF
  • 24Z. AtanasovM
  • 19Pedro IgorF
  • 11A. DzhamovF
  • 13K. ÖnaşçıM
  • 1A. RadkovG
Coach: M. Kašćelan

Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia

Arda Kardzhali

First League

  • D1-1Levski Sofia27 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
  • D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026

Septemvri Sofia

First League

  • L0-2away to Cherno More Varna27 October 2026
  • L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
  • L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Arda Kardzhali146352022-221
12Septemvri Sofia143291225-1311

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia

  • 18 July 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 21 March 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–4 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 20 October 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 8 July 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–2 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–4 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 25 October 2024Arda Kardzhali 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League

Leading scorers: Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia

Arda Kardzhali

GoalsAssists

  • B. Karagaren11
  • S. Kovachev10
  • A. Kabov10

Septemvri Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • André Filipe Rio Liberal11
  • F. Herard10
  • A. Dzhamov10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arda Kardzhali beat Septemvri Sofia 2–1. The model had made a win for Arda Kardzhali its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Svetoslav Kovachev 6' for Arda Kardzhali, Andre Liberal 23' for Septemvri Sofia, Martin Paskalev 26' for Arda Kardzhali. Sent off: viktor dobrev (Septemvri Sofia) 90'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Septemvri Sofia a 76.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 64.1% after a win, 75.4% after a draw, 80.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.3%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arda Kardzhali v Septemvri Sofia has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Arda Kardzhali's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Arda Kardzhali win56%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Septemvri Sofia win19%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.