Fluminense vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 2-1 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Fluminense, 26% draw, 22% Internacional — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Internacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 23GugaD
- 4IgnacioD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 6RenêD
- 35HérculesM
- 16NonatoM
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 10PH GansoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 7HulkF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 14G. CanoF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 22J. FreytesD
- 94OtávioM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 90K. SernaF
- 30Y. SoteldoF
- 22KauanG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 3G. MaripánD
- 18JuninhoD
- 35B. AguirreM
- 16RonaldoM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 10Alan PatrickM
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 9AlerrandroF
- 49J. BezerraF
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 17N. EliassonM
- 30CalebeM
- 43Henrique MenkeG
- 25G. MercadoD
- 28VitinhoF
- 27PaulinhoM
Form going into Fluminense vs Internacional
Fluminense
Serie A
- L1-2away to Chapecoense24 October 2026
- L1-2Santos18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
Internacional
Serie A
- W3-0Botafogo24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Internacional
Fluminense and Internacional have met 7 times in the records we hold, Fluminense has won 4 of them to Internacional's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Fluminense won the last one 2–1 on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Internacional | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
Serie AFluminense 2–1 Internacional - 3 May 2026
Serie AInternacional 2–0 Fluminense - 25 Oct 2025
Serie AFluminense 1–0 Internacional - 7 Aug 2025
Copa Do BrasilFluminense 1–1 Internacional - 31 Jul 2025
Copa Do BrasilInternacional 1–2 Fluminense - 1 Jun 2025
Serie AInternacional 0–2 Fluminense - 8 Nov 2024
Serie AInternacional 2–0 Fluminense
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Fluminense's attack rates 31% above Internacional's, and Fluminense concede 7% fewer than Internacional. That gives Fluminense the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Internacional | 0.78 | 1.12 |
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Internacional
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fluminense beat Internacional 2–1. The model had made a win for Fluminense its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alan Patrick 46' for Internacional, Hércules Pereira do Nascimento 78' for Fluminense, Luciano Acosta 90+7' for Fluminense. On expected goals it finished 1.57–1.10.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fluminense a 32.7% chance to finish in the top four: 41.2% after a win, 23.8% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.2%, 8.5 points higher than before the match.
For Internacional the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 25.8% going in: 8.8% after a win, 22.3% after a draw, 31.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.6%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fluminense v Internacional has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Fluminense's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Fluminense win52%▼ −4
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Internacional win22%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.