RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: RB Bragantino 3-0 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% RB Bragantino, 23% draw, 17% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
RB Bragantino at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1CleitonG
- 52Ryan TavaresD
- 4AlixD
- 2Guzmán RodríguezD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 5FabinhoM
- 7Eric RamiresM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 47WallaceM
- 11FernandoM
- 8Eduardo SashaF
- 19BruninhoF
- 17ViniciusF
- 3Eduardo SantosD
- 22GustavinhoM
- 32J. HerreraF
- 57Marcelinho BrazM
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 30Henry MosqueraF
- 9I. PittaF
- 98AndersonG
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 4João PauloD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 7MarcinhoM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 19David AntunesM
- 12FernandoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 23DuduD
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
- 3DomaD
- 94K. RamírezF
- 22MaxM
- 29F. RossiF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense
RB Bragantino
Serie A
- L0-2away to Palmeiras24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
- W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026
Chapecoense
Serie A
- W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 70 | -37 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense
- 3 May 2026Chapecoense 1–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 11 September 2021RB Bragantino 1–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 30 May 2021Chapecoense 0–3 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 16 November 2013Chapecoense 1–1 BragantinoSerie B
- 24 August 2013Bragantino 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
The result against the call
RB Bragantino beat Chapecoense 3–0. The model had made a win for RB Bragantino its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Wallace Yan 43' for RB Bragantino, Wallace Yan 51' for RB Bragantino, Henry Mosquera 90' for RB Bragantino. On expected goals it finished 2.59–0.79.
How the call on RB Bragantino v Chapecoense has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 63% / 22% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is RB Bragantino's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- RB Bragantino win60%▼ −3
- Draw23%▲ +1
- Chapecoense win17%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.