28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Field, Toronto
Referee: Alexis Da Silva
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Toronto FC 2-1 DC United.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Toronto FC, 25% draw, 24% DC United — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Toronto FC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toronto FC96%Draw4%DC United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽Andre Dozzellassist: Silvan Hefti
Niklas Dorsch
33'
Dániel Sallói
50'
50'
Kye Rowles
58'
Kimito Nono
60'
Jared Stroud
⚽Jonathan Osorioassist: Josh Sargent
64'
•Jonathan Osorio
64'
80'
🔁Nathan Ordazout: Brandon Servania
Matheus Pereira de Souza
84'
⚽Josh Sargent
86'
89'
🔁Jared Stroudout: Sean Nealis
🔁Djordje Mihailovicout: Alonso
89'
🔁Matheus Pereira de Souzaout: Zane Monlouis
90+3'
🔁Josh Sargentout: Emilio Aristizábal
90+5'

Match stats — Toronto FC vs DC United

61%Possession39%
9Shots10
2On target2
5Corners7
1.55xG1.15

Goals against chances

Toronto FC2 from 1.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
DC United1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toronto FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 9J. SargentF
  • 20D. SallóiF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 90L. MorganF
Coach: R. Fraser
DC United 4-4-2
  • 1S. JohnsonG
  • 5S. HeftiD
  • 3L. BartlettD
  • 15K. RowlesD
  • 6K. KurokawaD
  • 2K. NonoM
  • 4M. PeltolaM
  • 21A. DozzellM
  • 8J. StroudM
  • 7PeglowF
  • 22N. OrdazF
Substitutes
  • 26A. BonoG
  • 40K. CastilloM
  • 24J. FarrG
  • 25J. HopkinsM
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 13S. NealisD
  • 23B. ServaniaM
  • 12C. AntleyD
  • 48Gavin TurnerM
Coach: R. Weiler

Form going into Toronto FC vs DC United

Toronto FC

Major League Soccer

  • L2-4away to Columbus Crew24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls17 October 2026

DC United

Major League Soccer

  • L0-2FC Cincinnati24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati21 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539
14DC United34712153961-2233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs DC United

  • 25 July 2026DC United 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 10 May 2025Toronto FC 2–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 23 February 2025DC United 2–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 August 2024Toronto FC 1–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 1 June 2024DC United 2–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 27 May 2023Toronto FC 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Toronto FC and DC United

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo161

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Toronto FC beat DC United 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Toronto FC at 51%. The goals: Andre Dozzell 29' for DC United, Jonathan Osorio 64' for Toronto FC, Josh Sargent 86' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 1.55–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toronto FC a 13.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 41.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 12.6 points lower than before the match.

For DC United the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 83.0% going in: 53.1% after a win, 87.9% after a draw, 94.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.6%, 11.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Toronto FC v DC United has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Toronto FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Toronto FC win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. DC United win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.