25 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Lecce vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Referee: Fabio Maresca
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Lecce 0-2 Juventus.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Lecce, 29% draw, 49% Juventus — fair odds of 4.55, 3.45 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Juventus at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lecce0%Draw1%Juventus99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽Weston McKennieassist: Douglas Luiz Soares
41'
⚽Douglas Luiz Soaresassist: Federico Gatti
🔁Amar Fatahout: Joel Almada Monteiro
45'
🔁Mohamed Kabaout: Jamil Siebert
45'
🔁Tiago Gabrielout: Corrie Ndaba
60'
68'
🔁Andrea Cambiasoout: Juan Cabal
68'
🔁Randal Kolo Muaniout: Jérémie Boga
🔁Willem Geubbelsout: Paco Esteban
71'
Kialonda Gaspar
76'
83'
🔁Douglas Luiz Soaresout: Pape Matar Sarr
🔁Konan N'Driout: Nikola Stulic
86'
90'
🔁Weston McKennieout: Kerim Alajbegovic
Kialonda Gaspar
90+4'

Match stats — Lecce vs Juventus

42%Possession58%
16Shots8
4On target2
5Corners3
1.02xG1.13

Goals against chances

Lecce0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Juventus2 from 1.13 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lecce 4-3-3
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17Danilo VeigaD
  • 4Kialonda GasparD
  • 44Tiago GabrielD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 77M. KabaM
  • 79O. NgomM
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 11K. N’DriF
  • 69W. GeubbelsF
  • 7A. Ahmed FatahF
Substitutes
  • 1M. BleveG
  • 5J. SiebertD
  • 9N. ŠtulićF
  • 31E. ScottD
  • 32A. BorbeiG
  • 2A. DembéléD
  • 22Paco EstebanF
  • 8S. FofanaM
  • 16O. GandelmanM
Coach: E. Di Francesco
Juventus 3-1-4-2
  • 25G. VicarioG
  • 4F. GattiD
  • 3BremerD
  • 26J. LucumíD
  • 12Douglas LuizM
  • 15P. KaluluM
  • 22W. McKennieM
  • 8T. KoopmeinersM
  • 20A. CambiasoM
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
  • 9R. Kolo MuaniF
Substitutes
  • 29P. SarrM
  • 24D. RuganiD
  • 23C. PinsoglioG
  • 33NetoG
  • 32J. CabalD
  • 13J. BogaF
  • 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićF
  • 11E. ZhegrovaF
  • 6L. KellyD
Coach: L. Spalletti

Form going into Lecce vs Juventus

Lecce

Serie A

  • W3-0away to Udinese18 October 2026

Juventus

Serie A

  • L0-3Lazio18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Lecce113171222-1010
7Juventus115331512+318

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Juventus vs Lecce

Juventus and Lecce have met 7 times in the records we hold, Juventus has won 5 of them to Lecce's 0, with 2 drawn.

The record

Juventus won the last one 2–0 on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Juventus520113
Lecce025311

Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    Serie A    Lecce 0–2 Juventus
  • 9 May 2026
    Serie A    Lecce 0–1 Juventus
  • 3 Jan 2026
    Serie A    Juventus 1–1 Lecce
  • 12 Apr 2025
    Serie A    Juventus 2–1 Lecce
  • 1 Dec 2024
    Serie A    Lecce 1–1 Juventus
  • 21 Jan 2024
    Serie A    Lecce 0–3 Juventus
  • 26 Sep 2023
    Serie A    Juventus 1–0 Lecce

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Juventus' attack rates 53% above Lecce's, and Juventus concede 35% fewer than Lecce. That gives Juventus the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Juventus1.150.72
Lecce0.751.11

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Juventus won 2–0 at Lecce. The model had made a win for Juventus its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Weston McKennie 29' for Juventus, Douglas Luiz Soares 41' for Juventus. Sent off: Kialonda Gaspar (Lecce) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lecce a 19.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.0% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 21.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.5%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

For Juventus the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 22.6% going in: 25.9% after a win, 19.4% after a draw, 16.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.9%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lecce v Juventus has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 16% / 26% / 58% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 22% / 29% / 49%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 9 points.

  1. Lecce win22%▲ +6
  2. Draw29%▲ +3
  3. Juventus win49%▼ −9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.