Marseille vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 4-3 Le Havre.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Marseille, 23% draw, 16% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Le Havre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 1J. de LangeG
- 14Igor PaixãoF
- 6T. NnadiM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 33EmersonD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 22T. WeahM
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 74K. BezahafD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 7A. GomesM
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 18B. MeitéD
- 92T. VermotG
- 93G. GallonG
- 26S. EbonogM
- 38R. FofanaF
- 6J. MwangaM
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 20D. OuziadF
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 25M. SamattaF
- 15A. SekoD
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 5A. ToubaD
- 33Hakim DongopandjiF
- 9J. MajaF
- 17K. MizutaF
- 78D. MosengoM
- 97Mouhamed N'DiayeM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 23V. SassoD
- 24G. ZohouriM
- 16A. BodartG
Form going into Marseille vs Le Havre
Marseille
Ligue 1
- W5-2away to Angers18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026
Le Havre
Ligue 1
- L1-3Auxerre18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Marseille
Le Havre and Marseille have met 7 times in the records we hold, Marseille has won 7 of them to Le Havre's 0.
The record
Marseille won the last one 4–3 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 24 |
| Marseille | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 32 goals, an average of 4.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Marseille 4–3 Le Havre - 10 May 2026
Ligue 1Le Havre 0–1 Marseille - 18 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Marseille 6–2 Le Havre - 10 May 2025
Ligue 1Le Havre 1–3 Marseille - 5 Jan 2025
Ligue 1Marseille 5–1 Le Havre - 19 May 2024
Ligue 1Le Havre 1–2 Marseille - 8 Oct 2023
Ligue 1Marseille 3–0 Le Havre
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Marseille's attack rates 83% above Le Havre's, and Marseille concede 23% fewer than Le Havre. That gives Marseille the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Marseille and Le Havre
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Marseille beat Le Havre 4–3. The model had made a win for Marseille its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: CJ Egan-Riley 5' for Marseille, Timothy Weah 33' for Marseille, Igor Paixão 50' for Marseille, Himad Abdelli 55' for Marseille, Josh Maja (penalty) 77' for Le Havre, Lamine N'Diaye 86' for Le Havre, Josh Maja 89' for Le Havre. On expected goals it finished 1.63–3.10.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Marseille a 21.2% chance to finish in the top three: 23.3% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.3%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Le Havre the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 40.0% going in: 30.4% after a win, 38.7% after a draw, 42.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.6%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Marseille v Le Havre has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is Marseille's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Marseille win61%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Le Havre win16%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.