Monaco vs Lille Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 1-1 Lille.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Monaco, 29% draw, 33% Lille — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Monaco at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs Lille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 4J. TezeD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 31Ansu FatiM
- 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
- 49I. TouréM
- 7M. DetourbetF
- 9F. BalogunF
- 11M. AblineF
- 37E. DiopM
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 18T. MinaminoM
- 22M. SalisuD
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 3N. NgoyD
- 23T. NianzouD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 21B. AndréM
- 8E. MbappéF
- 10H. HaraldssonF
- 35S. DiaouneF
- 7D. BakwaF
- 26I. CossierD
- 12O. GillG
- 9O. GiroudF
- 38M. GoffiD
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 28G. PerrinF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 33Matah YondjioF
Form going into Monaco vs Lille
Monaco
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Lorient18 October 2026
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
Lille
Ligue 1
- D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Monaco
Lille and Monaco have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lille has won 4 of them to Monaco's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Monaco on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Monaco | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Monaco 1–1 Lille - 10 May 2026
Ligue 1Monaco 0–1 Lille - 24 Aug 2025
Ligue 1Lille 1–0 Monaco - 22 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Lille 2–1 Monaco - 18 Oct 2024
Ligue 1Monaco 0–0 Lille - 24 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Monaco 1–0 Lille - 29 Oct 2023
Ligue 1Lille 2–0 Monaco
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Monaco's attack rates 12% above Lille's, and Lille concede 31% fewer than Monaco. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Monaco and Lille
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco and Lille drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Monaco at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ethan Mbappe 24' for Lille, Edan Diop 74' for Monaco. Sent off: Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi (Lille) 66'. On expected goals it finished 2.24–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monaco a 45.0% chance to finish in the top three: 52.3% after a win, 41.9% after a draw, 37.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.9%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
For Lille the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 36.4% going in: 45.0% after a win, 35.1% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.1%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.