Auxerre vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Auxerre, 25% draw, 30% Le Mans — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Auxerre at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Auxerre vs Le Mans
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. NardiG
- 15C. MakossoD
- 4A. TuanzebeD
- 92C. AkpaD
- 27L. SyM
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 5K. DanoisM
- 22F. OppegårdM
- 21R. FaivreM
- 10D. NamasoM
- 9C. ArcherF
- 77Aristide ZossouM
- 23M. DiopG
- 20S. DiomandéD
- 34L. DioubateM
- 17P. EkwahM
- 47Youssef KhouddaF
- 32R. MandengueD
- 35E. LegrosD
- 46A. PiedfortM
- 98N. KocikG
- 19D. SidibéD
- 17S. YohouD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 18L. BuadésM
- 9A. RabillardM
- 29L. BretelleM
- 8A. LaurayM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 13H. DialloF
- 26R. BambaD
- 15N. BoisséD
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 20W. HarhouzF
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 23D. TraoréM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 36Lenny VideiraM
Form going into Auxerre vs Le Mans
Auxerre
Ligue 1
- W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
- L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Le Mans
Auxerre and Le Mans have met 6 times in the records we hold, Auxerre has won 3 of them to Le Mans's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Auxerre on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| Le Mans | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Auxerre 1–1 Le Mans - 1 Aug 2020
Friendlies ClubsAuxerre 3–2 Le Mans - 10 Jan 2020
Ligue 2Le Mans 0–1 Auxerre - 2 Aug 2019
Ligue 2Auxerre 2–0 Le Mans - 25 Jan 2013
Ligue 2Auxerre 1–1 Le Mans - 20 Aug 2012
Ligue 2Le Mans 3–1 Auxerre
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and the two defences are almost level too. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Auxerre and Le Mans
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Auxerre and Le Mans drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Auxerre at 45% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lucas Buades 48' for Le Mans, Cameron Archer 56' for Auxerre. On expected goals it finished 0.91–1.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Auxerre a 10.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 7.0% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.9%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Le Mans the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 19.8% going in: 13.1% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.0%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Auxerre v Le Mans has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 41% / 25% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Auxerre's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Auxerre win45%▲ +4
- Draw25%=
- Le Mans win30%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.