25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

Angers vs Lorient Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Referee: Azzedine Souifi
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Angers 0-0 Lorient.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Angers, 29% draw, 44% Lorient — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Lorient at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Angers3%Draw93%Lorient4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Amine El Ouazzaniout: Jim Allevinah
28'
Yassine Belkdim
33'
🔁Yassine Belkdimout: Haris Belkebla
45'
59'
🔁Ibrahima Baldeout: Mamadou Kone
59'
🔁Souleymane Fayeout: Gabin Bernardeau
🔁Prosper Peterout: Usman Simbakoli
83'
🔁Amine Sbaïout: Harouna Djibirin
84'
85'
Nathaniel Adjei
88'
🔁Dembo Syllaout: Srđan Kuzmić
88'
🔁Jean-Victor Makengoout: Isak Jensen

Match stats — Angers vs Lorient

48%Possession52%
8Shots10
5On target1
6Corners7
0.36xG0.6

Goals against chances

Angers0 from 0.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lorient0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Angers 5-3-2
  • 1Anthony LopesG
  • 27L. Rao-LisoaD
  • 2C. ArcusD
  • 4O. CamaraD
  • 21J. LefortD
  • 17J. KaluluD
  • 14Y. BelkhdimM
  • 8B. van den BoomenM
  • 10A. SbaïM
  • 9P. PeterF
  • 19A. El OuazzaniF
Substitutes
  • 93H. BelkeblaM
  • 26A. BermontM
  • 11Djibirin HarounaF
  • 34M. GernigonD
  • 20Marius LouërD
  • 7U. SimbakoliF
  • 6L. MoutonM
  • 18J. AllevinahF
  • 16M. ZingaG
Coach: S. Gilli
Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 95S. TouréD
  • 20D. SyllaM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 43K. KouassiM
  • 17J. MakengoM
  • 19S. FayeM
  • 18I. BaldéF
Substitutes
  • 55N. ObaretinD
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 30S. KuzmićD
  • 42M. KoneF
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 33G. BernardeauM
  • 15A. TosinF
  • 10I. JensenF
Coach: A. Dujeux

Form going into Angers vs Lorient

Angers

Ligue 1

  • L2-5Marseille18 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026

Lorient

Ligue 1

  • W1-0Monaco18 October 2026
  • W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Angers10226919-108
10Lorient1043398+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Angers vs Lorient

Angers and Lorient have met 7 times in the records we hold, Angers has won 3 of them to Lorient's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

They drew 0–0 at Angers on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Angers32265
Lorient22356

Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    Ligue 1    Angers 0–0 Lorient
  • 8 Aug 2026
    Friendlies Clubs    Angers 2–1 Lorient
  • 15 Feb 2026
    Ligue 1    Lorient 2–0 Angers
  • 26 Oct 2025
    Ligue 1    Angers 2–0 Lorient
  • 9 Aug 2025
    Friendlies Clubs    Angers 1–0 Lorient
  • 3 Aug 2024
    Friendlies Clubs    Lorient 2–1 Angers
  • 5 Feb 2023
    Ligue 1    Lorient 0–0 Angers

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Lorient's attack rates 24% above Angers', and Lorient concede 32% fewer than Angers. That gives Lorient the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Angers0.621.27
Lorient0.770.86

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Angers and Lorient drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lorient at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.36–0.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Angers a 39.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 30.0% after a win, 39.9% after a draw, 43.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 39.9%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Angers v Lorient has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 27% / 29% / 44%: the biggest move is Angers's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Angers win27%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Lorient win44%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.